Mercedes set for toughest challenge of the season so far in Japan

We’re only two races into the 2026 Formula 1 season and Mercedes has dominated both of them, but that doesn’t mean that the team isn’t without its own challenges. And it looks set for a severe test on Sunday in Japan, potentially on multiple fronts.

China was somewhat of the perfect scenario for the team, with Kimi Antonelli taking advantage of difficulties for George Russell in qualifying to secure his first pole position, and Russell still lining up alongside him without being too downbeat. Then in the race, Antonelli got clear early on so there was no stressful battle between the teammates to handle, despite another one-two being achieved.

That’s not supposed to undermine Antonelli’s performance in Shanghai in any way, but in Japan it feels like his performance has gone up another level again, having held the upper hand against Russell for the entirety of Saturday. That came after all-but-matching his more experienced teammate in FP1, and moving ahead by a tenth of a second in FP2.

It’s the sort of controlled build-up that Mercedes wants to see from Antonelli, who has been learning that he doesn’t need to be on the absolute limit for every lap of every run. That might sound simple, but it’s then a balancing act to build up to your best level at the correct rate, rather than still be a long way short of your potential heading into qualifying and needing to suddenly make a big step.

Not that Russell’s weekend has gone completely smoothly, with the Australian Grand Prix winner suffering from handling issues in qualifying that left him questioning whether something was wrong with his car.

“[Antonelli] did a great job again,” Russell said. “Really strange session for us. I mean, we were both very fast all weekend. We made some adjustments after FP3 and then the beginning of qualifying we were nowhere, so we need to kind of understand that. Very lucky again to be in P2. Over the last two weekends it’s both gone wrong come qualifying, but race is tomorrow and still a lot to play for.

“It was really odd, to be honest. We made a set-up adjustment just going into qualifying and the car just did not feel the same as it has been the whole weekend. You saw my first laps in Q1, I was down in P7, P8, and we had to make a massive adjustment during qualifying with the front wing to adapt.

“The team have already had a look. We don’t know whether something incorrect was done or what happened, but I’m kind of glad again to be in this position because after Q1, I was like, ‘I’m not sure where we’ll end up.’”

The gap between the two Mercedes drivers ended up at the best part of three tenths of a second, larger than it was in Shanghai. But it also wasn't a total surprise given what Antonelli had shown prior to qualifying, even if the Italian says he didn’t expect such a margin.

“Yeah, I am [surprised by the gap], but with this regulation it’s very easy to gain or lose three tenths, whatever the gap was,” Russell said. “It’s really easy to gain and lose time, so it was the same for me in Melbourne. But he’s super quick, he’s been super quick around here and we’ll see tomorrow in the race how we’re going to do.”

Antonelli has had the upper hand on Russell so far at Suzuka. Lars Baron/Getty Images

And in the race is where Mercedes will face its challenges. While Australia and China showed the possibility for cars to swap positions multiple times, the consensus is Suzuka will prove much more challenging to overtake on, even it still could be a step forward from previous years.

“We’ve seen obviously how much easier it is to follow and obviously when you get the overtake mode, how much more battery you can harvest and then deploy on the straights, so you never know, it can give good racing,” Antonelli said. “But still, I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as China and Melbourne because obviously the track, first of all, is quite a bit tighter and you don’t have as many straights where you can overtake, or straights and then big braking, where you can make the move. You have a lot of fast entries, so it’s not going to be easy, but that’s why it’s crucial to have a good start and then we’ll see from there how the pace is going to be.”

Both Mercedes drivers are likely to then prioritize the lead early in the race, and be particularly punchy on the opening lap. And while it’s still very early days, they are the two clear favorites for the championship who know that every point against the other could prove crucial come the end of the year.

As McLaren demonstrated last year, you can just about keep the peace while letting two drivers fight for a title, but it’s certainly a new dynamic for both Russell and Antonelli, and one that comes with the added intrigue of external pressure.

“Qualifying was very close between the Ferraris and McLaren throughout, so that was probably a bit of a surprise to us,” Russell admitted. “We both had a very strong FP3 session, we thought we had a bit of a margin to the competitors. Obviously, we’re still P1 and P2, so that’s great, but clearly the others are closing in.”

The Mercedes starts have been far from ideal so far this season, with neither driver able to retain the lead despite the front row lock-outs. Oscar Piastri starting from third might be a blessing in disguise given he has the same power unit, but Charles Leclerc is still within range from fourth place having taken the lead from there in Australia.

Should overtaking prove more challenging, then any lost positions at the start will be even more painful than at the first two rounds, when the Mercedes drivers were still separated and an in-race fight for the win generally avoided. Should there be a pleasant surprise and the new regulations create more exciting racing action, then not only are both McLaren and Ferrari capable of disrupting the championship leaders this weekend, but we could get our first examples of Russell and Antonelli racing each other.

Good challenges to face for a leading team with two strong drivers, but Antonelli’s rapid development and strong performances so far mean they are challenges that are perhaps coming a little earlier than the team and Russell himself expected.