MEDLAND: Opportunities missed

There was a slightly surreal vibe in the Sepang paddock after the Malaysia Grand Prix. Nothing to do with it being the final race of the current F1 contract after 19 years on the calendar – although the racing it provides will be missed – but more the demeanor of the two teams fighting it out for the drivers' championship.

Neither seemed to be happy, and it can only be explained in part by the grins at Red Bull Racing – located between Ferrari and Mercedes in the paddock – after Max Verstappen's dominant victory.

For Ferrari, the sense of frustration had been present all weekend. Singapore was a huge opportunity for the team to claw back some points in the constructors' championship and, more importantly to the Scuderia, for Sebastian Vettel to regain the drivers' championship lead. Only three points behind Lewis Hamilton at the time, the now infamous first-lap crash accounted for both cars and resulted in Hamilton extending his lead to 28 points.

Toto Wolff insisted after Singapore that the final result – a one-three either side of Daniel Ricciardo – would not detract from the bigger picture that Mercedes had been the third-quickest team and would need to learn from the struggles. Past form made it an expected scenario at the Marina Bay Circuit, but two weeks later it appears that learning has yet to yield results.

Friday in Malaysia quickly revealed a similar pecking order, with Ferrari and Red Bull the fastest two teams and Mercedes floundering behind them. And yet it took just 24 hours for the picture to change when one title contender outperformed his machinery and the other didn't get the chance to.

We've become used to Mercedes dominating in recent years, seeing Hamilton securing pole positions and race victories, but make no mistake: Saturday was one of those occasions of a driver taking a car beyond what it should have been capable of. Perhaps Vettel would have limited that overachievement to second place had he been able to take part in qualifying, but the gap to a struggling Valtteri Bottas confirmed it.

Ricciardo backed that theory up on Saturday evening, stating that Red Bull's best chance of victory would come if Hamilton retained the lead ahead of Kimi Raikkonen at the start because the Mercedes was not competitive in race trim. The Australian also added that he didn't expect to see a recovering Vettel in his mirrors on Sunday: "If I see him, then my race has been pretty s**t."

At least he got to race. The sight of an engine cover being removed on the grid is never a good one, and acted like a magnet to many of the media as we watched the team work frantically on Raikkonen's car. Just when it seemed Ferrari had no feet left in which to shoot itself, it found one. Kimi's trainer, Mark Arnall, was calm as he observed the car being pulled apart, but acknowledged it was an almost certain victory gone.

It continues a dire run of results for Ferrari, even if the pace has fluctuated. Vettel's ability to push Hamilton hard at Spa-Francorchamps boded well for the rest of the season, but the thrashing it took in Monza followed by the problems of the last two races have quickly doused that feel-good feeling.

It is a run that could well cost team principal Maurizio Arrivabene his job, with paddock rumors that Arrivabene is set to be fired at the end of the season evolving into an even shorter timeframe if things do not go well at Suzuka this weekend.

But Toto Wolff had little time for sympathy for his counterpart, cutting a dejected figure after the checkered flag on Sunday. Hamilton may have salvaged a second place, but Mercedes was a long way off the competitive level it has become accustomed to over the past four years. Hamilton himself described the struggles over the weekend as "just not acceptable at this great a team", and Wolff was moved to remind everyone of how strong the car has been at times.

"We must not forget that we're talking about the car that leads the constructors' championship and leads the drivers' championship," Wolff said. "So it's not a lame duck. This car has been the quickest car out there on many occasions. Monza and Silverstone come into my mind where we have blown everybody away. So there are certain conditions that make us underperform, but it is not the fundamental pace within the car. The car is a good car, maybe the fastest car this year."

Often when listening to Wolff talk about problems being faced by Mercedes it has sounded like he's trying to make a mountain out of a molehill, such has been the pace advantage his team has enjoyed. The past two weekends were different though, and a clear indication that there are questions the team is struggling to find answers to.

Such pessimism within the top two teams highlights the pressures of being involved in a title battle. Red Bull sits a distant third, and yet Christian Horner was delighted and relaxed on Sunday evening, having presided over a dominant second win of the year. The performance shows off the impressive performance improvements Red Bull has made this season, but having entered the year as one of the title favorites, two wins from 15 races is not a return with which Horner should be satisfied.

In my pre-season preview for RACER Magazine I said Ferrari had the potential to deliver a race- and championship-winning car, but that I lacked the confidence in the team to truly believe it would do so. A similar scenario is playing out now: Ferrari has shown the performance is currently there to win on every circuit if it produces faultless weekends, but you just can't see it happening...

For once in a long time, the past two races have also stirred that feeling about Mercedes, conjuring doubts over whether it will be able to get the most out of an obviously quick but unpredictable car at the five circuits still to be visited. The saving grace based on recent results is that it might not have to.

The title race is certainly not over, but it would take a spectacular performance from Vettel and Ferrari to turn this one around.