BUXTON: Year one

If I were a gambling man – and I'm not – I'd be tempted to stick a few dollars down on Pierre Gasly topping the first day of 2018 pre-season testing in a Toro Rosso Honda. Fernando Alonso will be plum last for McLaren Renault, with three laps under his belt.

Such is the way the chips have fallen for the Spaniard over his career that it would be no small surprise to see the Honda power unit which he has so maligned for the past three seasons finally come good as soon as it finds a new home. And for the Renault power plant, which has proven nowhere near the fastest and nowhere near the most reliable, to fail in both regards.

But time will tell.

The McLaren Honda relationship has been doomed from the start. And McLaren must take its fair share of the blame for the circumstances around this catastrophe. It is no secret that Honda was rushed into its return to Formula 1 by the team with whom it enjoyed so much past success. Not only this, but the original concept and architecture which the Japanese firm wished to employ was shunned in favor of something far more restrictive, so adamant was McLaren over its "size zero" design concept. Honda persevered for two seasons before finally saying enough was enough. It had to revert to its original intentions if it was ever to make the progress it required to save face.

And so 2017 has been not year three of the project, but year one. The very real improvements, which have only recently started to become obvious, were the growing pains the company should have endured in 2015. Had it been granted the freedom to follow its own path it should, by now, have caught up.

There seems little doubt that Honda will be much improved in 2018. It is only a matter of time until they get things right. Next season will only be year two of this concept. There will still be issues. It will still lag behind in power and reliability. But it will get there. By 2019, it could be a force to be reckoned with.

Talk in the Formula 1 paddock is that the McLaren Honda divorce has not been cheap for Woking. The loss of the much-vaunted $100 million investment per annum is just one part of the hit the team will have to take. Chatter suggests it has cost McLaren tens of millions of dollars to convince Toro Rosso to take on a new engine supplier. Money which the Italian team can, and will, use to good effect.

They already have one of the highest-regarded designers in Formula 1. But lacking the budget to press forward with meaningful development has meant Toro Rosso has never been able to keep pace with its midfield rivals. That all looks set to change.

It is thus more than conceivable that Toro Rosso Honda could find itself in a strong position in the midfield next year. And the consequences of this are far-reaching.

Toro Rosso's big sister Red Bull Racing is out of contract with Renault at the end of next year. Neither Christian Horner nor Cyril Abiteboul were ebullient in their expectations of their deal continuing into 2019 when quizzed on the subject on Friday. For Abiteboul, this should come as little surprise. How quickly Red Bull Racing forgot Renault's role in their four consecutive world championships, throwing their engine partner under the bus for their struggles in the hybrid era. Their relationship, much as McLaren and Honda's, seems destined for divorce. And Red Bull has only one remaining option: Honda.

It seems highly unlikely that any new engine manufacturers would consider entering the sport until the new engine regulations are agreed and implemented in 2021. Even if they are rushed in for 2020, Red Bull would still find itself a year shy of being able to hook up with a new entrant, leaving it begging for scraps in 2019. If such a situation seems incredible, remember that Red Bull has only itself to blame for finding itself in this position. It will not get Mercedes power. It will not be granted Ferrari engines. If it loses Renault, Honda is its only option for 2019 and, potentially, 2020.

But what beyond that? Christian Horner has stated that talk of a link up with Porsche is far-fetched. The team already has a partnership with Aston Martin, and Porsche doesn't fit into the equation. Short of selling up to Porsche and Red Bull bugging out of Formula 1 in a double move that involves Torro Rosso being sold to Honda, any talk of Porsche makes little sense.

So what of Aston Martin? Well there's just one problem. Aston Martin make cars. Not engines.

The Red Bull Technology base is a constantly-expanding facility, with many recent appointments having been on the engine side. And yet when questioned today, Horner refuted any suggestions that RBT was thinking about moving into engine production. So for now we can all but rule out Red Bull making its own power units and badging them as Astons.

Again. There is only one option. And it is Honda. Badge it up however you want; Tag Heuer, Aston Martin, whatever you like. The options for Red Bull aren't just limited. If Red Bull and Renault go separate ways, the option is singular.

Which brings us back to Toro Rosso Honda, and what will be a crucial 2018 season. Dany Kvyat may likely get a stay of execution. Alongside him, expect to see Pierre Gasly. The Frenchman raced brilliantly in GP2 and is now a multiple race-winner, for Honda no less, in the Japanese Super Formula championship. The seat, by rights, should be his.

Questions have been raised and debate reigns as to whether the second seat will go to Honda protégé Nobuhara Matsushita. It will not. Barring an unlikely romp over the final rounds of the Formula 2 championship, he will not have amassed enough points to be granted a superlicense. And no amount of fried chicken sales is going to make KFC-backed Sean Gelael a superstar worthy of a license.

Of course, we jest about Alonso's appalling luck with career movements, but if the McLaren Renault tie up proves to be a failure, he too must take some of the responsibility. His public denigration of Honda left McLaren with little choice but to split with the manufacturer, lest they lose his services. Is Fernando worth the estimated $150 million this divorce may have cost McLaren? Again, time will tell.

All eyes will be on McLaren to see if they can make this new relationship work. Yet even more will be on Toro Rosso. For when Honda get it right, and they will get it right, the Japanese firm may yet form the basis of Red Bull's return to championship contention.

More importantly, they may be their only hope.