PRUETT: 2017 IndyCar championship primer

With seven drivers in mathematical contention and five in realistic positions to earn the Astor Cup, the best we can do is look back at recent performance trends at Sonoma and tracks like it for the championship challengers. We'll also arm you with all the links and info needed to stay on top of the four-day sprint that will crown Josef Newgarden, Scott Dixon, Helio Castroneves, Will Power, Alexander Rossi or Graham Rahal as the best IndyCar driver in the field.

Before we delve into the stats and insights, here's how to follow along for the rest of the week:

SCHEDULE:

Thursday: Series-wide test, 10 a.m.-12 p.m., 2-6 p.m. (all times Pacific, no streaming)

Friday: Free practice 1, 10-10:45 a.m. (streaming on IndyCar.com, Facebook, Twitter)
Free practice 2, 2:15-3 p.m. (live on NBCSN from 2-3:30 p.m.)

Saturday: Free practice 3, 11-11:45 a.m. (streaming on IndyCar.com, Facebook, Twitter)
Qualifying, 3:30-4:45 p.m. (live on NBCSN from 3:30-5 p.m.)

Sunday: Final warm-up, 11:30 a.m.-12 p.m. (streaming on IndyCar.com, Facebook, Twitter)
Race, 85 laps, 3:43-6 p.m. (live on NBCSN from 3:00-6 p.m.)

CONTENDER STANDINGS

1. Josef Newgarden, Team Penske Chevy, 560 points
2. Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing Honda, 557 points (-3)
3. Helio Castroneves, Team Penske Chevy, 538 points (-22)
4. Simon Pagenaud, Team Penske Chevy, 526 points (-34)
5. Will Power, Team Penske Chevy, 492 points (-68)
6. Alexander Rossi, Andretti Autosport Honda, 476 points (-84)
7. Graham Rahal, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda, 466 points (-94)

POINTS AVAILABLE

1st: 100
2nd: 80
3rd: 70
4th: 64
5th: 60
6th: 56
7th: 52
8th: 48
9th: 44
10th: 40
11th: 38, with each subsequent position losing two points through 25th, which pays 10 points.

Bonus: 1 point for pole, 1 for leading a lap, and 2 for leading the most laps.

Altogether, a maximum of 104 points are available at Sonoma.

THE CONTENDERS

NEWGARDEN: Of all the championship hopefuls, the Tennessean's previous Sonoma data is the least helpful to use for future projections.

A pair of sixths (2014, 2016) have been countered with three finishes of 21st or worse (2012, 2013, 2015), which could give the impression the points leader is an inconsistent mess. In reality, 2012 can be wiped from the list; he was collateral damage in a big crash triggered by Sebastien Bourdais. 2013 can be blamed on a faulty gearbox, and a series of pit lane calamities, including a small fire with his CFH Racing Chevy, ruined Newgarden's 2015 race.

Driving for a smaller team facing the giants at Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing, Newgarden was a top-six guy, and now that he's with the dominant Penske program, his form in 2017 on fast or sweeping road courses has been illuminating.

A win at Barber Motorsports Park, second at Road America, and a win at Mid-Ohio should be a concern for his rivals. On the flip side, Newgarden's rivals might take solace in his lack of front-running speed two weeks ago at Watkins Glen, and again with how he threw away an eighth-place finish with the costly pit lane exit error.

What's the takeaway for Newgarden? He's been fast at Sonoma in lesser equipment, has been the best on three of the four Sonoma-like circuits this year, and has spent his debut season at Penske spoiling the lofty plans crafted by his teammates. The numbers suggest the kid might close the deal on Sunday.

Prior to the pit lane mishap, Newgarden could have cruised into Sonoma and clinched the title with a boring run near the podium. Thanks to the mistake, he'll have to treat the race like a two-hour qualifying battle. How fun.

DIXON: If the Kiwi's 12 trips to Sonoma tell us anything, it's this: Prepare for triumph or heartbreak.

Of the five key contenders, Dixon is tied with Power for the most wins (2007, 2014, 2015) and has a fine second (2010) to his credit. Barring the inaugural event where the four-time champ placed seventh (2005), the rest of Dixon's Sonoma results have been 10th or worse.

Some have come as a result of misfortune, errors or unhappy componentry; without the problems, Dixon's record would be vastly improved, but as it stands, there's been little in the way of middle ground in Sonoma.

Judging by history, the best of his generation is either going to maul Newgarden and the Penske boys or have little to show for his efforts by the time he reaches the checkered flag. And as the lone Honda representative in the thick of the title fight, Dixon's competitiveness – whatever it proves to be – might not be an accurate depiction of his true capabilities.

The Chevys have been undeniably strong on road courses where maximum downforce is used, and that's what's called for on Sonoma's low-grip circuit. Dixon, though, being Dixon, has shadowed Newgarden on the four Sonoma-like tracks with a second at Barber, an unexpected win – at Newgarden's expense – at Road America, an odd ninth at Mid-Ohio, and a fighting second at Watkins Glen.

Teams ran with reduced downforce to help on the long straights at Road America and Watkins Glen, and in that specification, Honda's engines have made the difference. But with slightly more downforce available from the Chevy aero kit on the big downforce tracks like Barber and Sonoma, Dixon could be challenged to keep pace.

The championship battle only has one serious question that can't be answered until qualifying arrives, and that's whether Dixon and his No. 9 CGR Honda will be able to vie for pole and win the race. If he isn't at an aero disadvantage, pray for the rest of the contenders.

CASTRONEVES: It's likely the last championship battle for the Brazilian. With eight runner-up or third-place finishes in the IndyCar standings, Castroneves is, without a doubt, the most consistent driver without a title we've ever seen. Considering everything that's at stake – his final chance to capture a championship before sports cars beckon, the last thing Castroneves can afford is another consistent run to a distant podium result.

As RACER's Robin Miller has said many times this year, the three-time Indy 500 winner is driving like the guy who burst onto the scene in the late 1990s. Fast, assured, always a threat, Castroneves is drinking from the fountain of youth, but is he willing to put consistency aside and fight like a crazed dog on Sunday? Is he capable of pulling a Newgarden-at-Gateway and knocking a teammate aside to get to the front?

One win (2008) and two seconds (2007, 2011) aren't bad at Sonoma, and we can disregard the bad days of 15th or worse (2005, 2009, 2014, 2015); it's the almost-there days with fifths, sixths, sevenths (2006, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016) that provide the worrying trend.

There are a million scenarios that could manifest on Sunday, but since we can't predict who'll get a flat tire, break something or receive a penalty, we can only go on what we know: With 22 points to make up on Newgarden, Castroneves will need to own Newgarden and hope Dixon has a forgettable race. And, to add another layer of complexity, he'll have Sonoma badasses Pagenaud and Power to deal with.

If there was one time in his illustrious career where saving the best for last was absolutely required, it's here and now.

PAGENAUD: It's a CTRL+C and CTRL+V event for the defending series champion. Pagenaud, with crystal clarity, knows he needs to replicate his 2016 Sonoma performance in order to retain the title. Twelve months ago, a monster result, with all 104 points scored, put an exclamation mark on the season, and with his affinity for the 2.3-mile road course, Sonoma has become his playground in the same way Mid-Ohio is Dixon's track.

Ignore Pagenaud's first two results at Sonoma while driving for small teams, but look at 2013 (fifth) and 2014 (third) while punching well above his weight for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports as evidence of how strong the Frenchman is at the circuit formerly known as Sears Point. His first season with Penske (16th) in 2015 was an aberration; confusion on pit lane with Newgarden in his pit box, stopping in the middle of the lane, and a penalty for the situation tanked his day, but he fixed the problem on his return by stomping the field.

If there's a hint of unease with Pagenaud this year, it's how Castroneves-like he's been. Five wins during his championship run left everyone in his wake; a single win this year – back in April at Phoenix – and seven finishes in fourth or fifth place have earned solid points, but not much else.

Overcoming a 34-point gap to Newgarden is far from impossible, and yet, if we look at how most of the season has gone, Pagenaud will have no choice but to unleash his inner tiger if he's going to hold onto his crown. Safe and steady won't get the job done. It's maximum attack, only, if he wants to leave Sonoma as The Man.

POWER: There was a time when the 2014 IndyCar champ was the king of Sonoma. From 2010 through 2013, the Aussie captured three wins and a second, and he's been in the hunt the years that followed until silly things or mechanical issues have blighted his charge.

With six poles this year, including Barber, Power has been a beast over a flying lap. On those four all-important tracks similar to Sonoma, however, only Mid-Ohio (second) has suggested he's to be feared. At Road America (fifth) and most recently at Watkins Glen (sixth), Power The Demoralizer was missing.

A full 68 points back, we'll need to see epic collapses in front of Power and his best-ever Sonoma drive if he wants a slim chance of becoming champion.

The beauty of Power, though, is he's IndyCar's wild card. Which Will Power will turn up in Sonoma? If it's the 2010-2013 guy, game on. If not, prepare to celebrate Newgarden, Dixon, Castroneves or Pagenaud as the new champ.

ROSSI: He'll need to put a curse on the top five, have a friend gain access to an electromagnetic pulse gun to fry their ECUs, then lead the most laps and win. And it still might not be enough.

RAHAL: See Rossi, and add Rossi to the curse.