NASCAR: In search of Chase drama

Where's the drama?

That was the question posed to several drivers over the weekend at Dover International Speedway prior to the final race in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup's Round of 16. It was an uneventful three-race stretch, dominated by the usual contenders but that's how this was destined to play out.

Those who failed to make the cut were always the most likely to go in Chris Buescher, Tony Stewart, Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson. In this sense, the first round was largely a formality.

This particular format of the Chase has produced a great deal of tension over its first two seasons, but it was unrealistic to expect it to begin this soon. Now with only the 12 best teams remaining, stripped of their regular season bonus points, this is where the fun truly begins.

"I think the further you get, the more it's going to ramp up, for sure," Chase Elliott said on Friday. "Obviously, when guys are put in certain situations they're going to feel it more... To me, this first round has felt pretty normal as far as the races go and how I've seen people driving and whatnot. I feel like it's been pretty similar to the races throughout the year."

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The first round has always provided the largest margin of error for the remaining contenders. Many of the best drivers have earned numerous bonus points and could afford a mulligan of sorts. That's not the case now that everyone has been reset to 3,000 points and one bad result could force a driver into a must-win scenario.

Instead of looking for drivers to emerge triumphant, this format anticipates misfortune and failure. The fact this has become a narrative irritates six-time champion Jimmie Johnson.

"It's just so hard to make everyone happy," Johnson said. "It actually frustrates me to hear that – that this is the response. It's just tough to make everyone happy."

But the reality is that happiness is going to be hard to come by during a three-race round that concludes with a random number-generated affair at Talladega Superspeedway. That was certainly the case last season when Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano begun their bitter feud at Kansas while Kevin Harvick seemingly made a controversial decision to save his own title hopes in Alabama.

History will surely repeat itself in some form this month. The remaining teams are just too evenly matched. The Championship Race at Homestead Miami Speedway will only take four teams and that will include some combination of the five dominant Toyota teams, the always-present Stewart Haas bunch, two underrated Team Penske squads and the suddenly resurgent Hendrick Motorsports duo of Johnson and Chase Elliott.

That's at least 11 drivers fighting for eight and then four spots – and that doesn't even include Austin Dillon, who continues to defy the odds this season. This has become a numbers game and desperate drivers are going to have to make some tough decisions.

If you're looking for drama, you're about to find it.