What are the early takeaways from the 2026 IndyCar season?

On approach to IndyCar’s third race in three weekends, let’s take a way-too-early look at some of the standout trends from the first two events leading into Sunday’s Java House Grand Prix of Arlington

SNEAKY GOOD

Andretti Global’s Kyle Kirkwood has been the best driver on average across St. Petersburg and Phoenix, with runs to fourth on the streets in his home state and second at the first bullring oval. Kirkwood’s No. 27 Honda team is the only one in the Andretti camp that’s unchanged from last season, and it shows. All the key contributors are back, and as a result, the Floridian is motoring along like it’s a continuation of 2025 when he finished fourth in the championship.

But so far in 2026, he’s even stronger, sitting second in the standings (73 points) to Josef Newgarden (78).

Anything can happen, of course, but we’re heading into two street races out of the next three between Arlington on Sunday and Long Beach in April. From his five IndyCar victories, four were earned on street courses and the other was on a short oval. He just excelled on a street course and a short oval, and has a pair of races on the horizon – two of his victories came at Long Beach – where he could make big statements in his quest to win the title.

Barber hasn’t been as kind; his best there is a 10th, but Kirkwood’s demonstrated the kind of all-round skills that make him a threat at every type of track. He’s winless so far in 2026, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that change in the coming weeks.

Andretti teammate Marcus Ericsson is ninth in the standings (43) and while he had a Phoenix race to forget, his pace at St. Pete suggests more good things could be on the way alongside Kirkwood.

McLAREN MAGIC?

The indicator that something was slightly amiss with Team Penske last season wasn’t in all that went down in May. It was in the races leading up to the Indy 500, where the formidable three-car program was just a tick slower at events it had won or led convincingly the year prior.

It’s only two races in, but Arrow McLaren’s looking a lot like Team Penske at the opening of 2025. It’s definitely doing well – Pato O’Ward sits fourth in the standings (63) thanks to a fifth and a fourth – but the big punch of increased competitiveness has been missing. Qualifying has been the first surprise as its best start is a seventh at Phoenix from O’Ward, and with St. Pete factored in, he and seventh-place teammate Christian Lundgaard (54) haven’t posed a threat to reach victory lane.

Like Penske last year, Arrow McLaren has generated solid results with Lundgaard snaring a third at St. Pete, but the race-winning edge has yet to appear. Is it a sign of the team losing a step to the Ganassis and Penskes and Andrettis during the offseason, or have the two opening races been an aberration?

Arrow McLaren has made a decent start to the season, but the jury's still out on whether the team has made a real leap forward from last year. Gavin Baker/Getty Images

That could all change at Arlington with a pole by either of its lead drivers and a win in O’Ward’s adopted home state. And if it doesn’t, the second-best team of 2025 will have to scramble and find the missing magic it used to such great effect last season.

Separate from team pride and competitiveness, the third member of the team, Nolan Siegel, arrives at Arlington with a pair of 20th-place finishes and sits 23rd in the championship (20).

SPEAKING OF…

It’s safe to say Team Penske is back in championship-contending business.

Its impressive launch from the starting line includes two poles from two races, a win, a runner-up, and its drivers have taken three of the six available podium spots to date. Josef Newgarden leads the championship (78) for the first time since leaving Long Beach in 2022; Scott McLaughlin is nearby in third (66), and David Malukas holds a career-best sixth (56) on debut for the team.

No other team is even close to Penske’s P1-P3-P6. Arrow McLaren is next-best with P4 and P7, and in the mix with single contenders, it’s Andretti Global with Kirkwood in P2 and Chip Ganassi Racing with Alex Palou in P5 (59). Kirkwood’s closest Andretti ally is Marcus Ericsson in P9 (43) and for Palou, he’s on an island for Ganassi with Scott Dixon back in P13 (35).

It’s an individual sport, but team strength can play an important role if an outfit like Penske can continue to swarm the top positions with all three drivers. Individuals like Kirkwood and Palou and others can obviously break through and win, but how high is the degree of difficulty?

Looking at the big championship picture, the Andrettis and Ganassis could use a big weekend or two of team-wide results to fortify their positions. Penske wasn’t a factor last year and didn’t win its first race until the final weeks of the season. The opposite is true this year.

And with Newgarden’s remarkable history of success on street courses with wins at St. Pete, Long Beach, Detroit, and Toronto, don’t paint him as a one-trick oval specialist. Five of McLaughlin seven wins are from road and street courses, with back-to-back victories at Barber to acknowledge. If the form shown at St. Pete and Phoenix continues, it’s game on for the rest of the month, with Malukas also looking primed to win his first race.

The heavy restoration of Team Penske’s competitiveness has brought serious heat to their rivals and given us an early championship to follow that’s anything but the runaway affair from 2025. Will it continue in Arlington?

STRATEGY

It's hard to ignore how the first two races have been decided by race strategies that broke from the norm. Alex Palou’s win at St. Pete was the byproduct of many things, and being one of only few to choose tire compound sequencing as he did with the No. 10 Honda a major part of how they won the race. Penske and Newgarden also fell into that category at Phoenix by rolling the dice on pitting under what proved to be the last caution – as the leaders stayed out – and turned that strategy play into a victory.

Whose choice of primary and double-alternate compound sequencing will stand above the rest on the streets of Arlington?

Calls from the pitwall have played a huge part in determining the outcome of the first two races. Brandon Badraoui/Getty Images

RISERS AND FALLERS

* In terms of unmet potential at the finish line, Mick Schumacher has experienced one of the most distorted starts to a season for any high-caliber rookie. Taken out on the first lap at St. Pete, he finished 25th and last, and after starring in his first oval qualifying session, his Phoenix race went sideways at the first pit stop when a wheel gun failed and a 32s stop – the normal duration at the event from pit-in to pit-out – took 42s. Later, while hoping to regain a lost lap, he pitted under green, lost a lap, which is normal, and then a caution came out, which ended any hope of recovering those laps. He went on to finish 18th, and thanks to the St. Pete result, sits 25th and last (17) in the championship. An unremarkable race at Arlington with no hits and no issues in the pits would show what Schumacher’s capable of delivering.

* As bad a Schumacher’s start to the season has gone, he’s only six points behind Andretti Global’s Will Power in 22nd (23), which tells you how often Power has been struck by cartoon anvils. Three of those strikes were solo hits, with a pair of crashes at St. Pete and another in practice at Phoenix, but when issues were avoided, he showed his short oval prowess and led 10 laps last weekend before another cartoon anvil moment that punctured a tire and took him out of the lead in the contact with Christian Rasmussen. In a theme that applies to many in the field, a clean and simple weekend at Arlington would do wonders for Power’s season because a third consecutive poor finish would threaten to turn the rest of the year into a salvage job.

* Dale Coyne Racing has been defying the odds with rookie Dennis Hauger holding 11th in the championship (36) and an instantly-on-form Romain Grosjean, who finished eighth at St. Pete, but didn’t get to race at Phoenix due to a mechanical issue (29) and lies in 17th. The scrappy team is one of the best stories to follow so far.

* The gap between Team Penske and its technical affiliate at AJ Foyt Racing has been noticeable. Foyt’s Santino Ferrucci was taken out at St. Pete in the same crash that ended Schumacher’s day, but his get-back opportunity at Phoenix – the kind of track where he thrives – never materialized. Ferrucci was running well late in the race, but was part of the lead pack to be overwhelmed by the new-tire gang and fell to 11th. Ferrucci and rookie teammate Caio Collet have struggled for pace in both qualifying sessions so far, with the best start belonging to Ferrucci (17th) at St. Pete, which has made their race days much harder than desired. Considering how well the Penske drivers are performing, the Foyt team – at their home race – are looking for answers on how to move 19th-place Ferrucci (25) and Collet in 21st (24) forward in all phases of the event.

* Phoenix didn’t pan out as intended for Rinus VeeKay following the Palou collision that left him 22nd at the checkered flag, but he started eighth and has been instantly competitive for Juncos Hollinger Racing. VeeKay holds 16th in the championship (30) thanks to the run to ninth at St. Pete. Teammate Sting Ray Robb has been consistent with two finishes of 21st – and a highlight with a career-leading Phoenix qualifying performance of 12th – that have him 24th in the standings (18).

* Meyer Shank Racing had a soft start at St. Pete and fell short again in qualifying at Phoenix, but Marcus Armstrong drove from 13th to fifth and Felix Rosenqvist charged from 24th to 12th. Armstrong is developing into a solid short-oval racer and leads the team in the championship with eighth (50) while Rosenqvist’s in 12th (36). Armstrong could emerge as another sneaky contender if he can get through Arlington and Barber with quality results.

* ECR’s had a ton of ups and downs in a span of one week. Christian Rasmussen was doing well at St. Pete, had contact and was tipped into a spin in Turn 1, and finished 19th. He rocketed from 18th to first at Phoenix and kept charging back to first after pit stops, but contact with Power and another meeting with the wall blighted his show-stopping run and he finished 14th.

Teammate Alexander Rossi made a big move at St. Pete after qualifying last, came home 16th, and at Phoenix, he was competitive, but lacked the last bit of speed to run at the front and started and finished sixth. Rasmussen down in 19th in the standings (28) while Rossi is an encouraging 10th (42) for a team that clearly improved during the offseason. Arlington and Barber will be big tests to determine whether ECR can play with the title contenders at tracks where its rivals shine.

* Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing stood out at Phoenix in a way that meaningful after too many of its short-oval outputs were subpar in recent years, and two other facets of RLL’s early season also stand out with the terrible start for Louis Foster, who’s 20th in the standings (24), five spots behind Graham Rahal in 15th (34), and the vast year-to-year leap the team has made on pit lane with pit stops that rank among the fastest in the series. Together with the dedicated work by the three pit crews to be quick and consistent, the acquisition of pit stop manager Kyle Sagan from Arrow McLaren also appears to be paying off for the team.