Fingers in the air about the NASCAR year ahead

Mother Nature is doing her best to delay the start of the NASCAR season, but whether the Clash at Bowman Gray happens or not, the series is soon headed south for the biggest race of the season.

There is a lot of intrigue about what’s to come in 2026. The street race in Chicago has been replaced by a return to the oval in Joliet. But a new venue arrives in the form of an active military base in San Diego, which is sure to provide some of the best scenic views of the season. Then there is trying out additional horsepower and the re-introduction of the Chase format.

Here are some top-of-mind predictions for the season ahead:

Ryan Blaney wins the Daytona 500

You have to believe it’s coming sooner rather than later. Blaney is usually in the mix at Daytona, and he’s one of the top five superspeedway racers in the series right now. In the last five races, he’s led 72 laps in the Daytona 500. Plus, he’s done nearly everything but win the Daytona 500 with two wins in the summer race and a qualifying race at the facility. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s driving a Ford, and no matter the season, Fords are always fast and the first ones to look at.

Kyle Busch returns to victory lane

It comes down to faith in new crew chief Jim Pohlman to provide a spark, the continued work (and personnel shuffling and hiring) at Richard Childress Racing to figure things out, and the fact that Busch is not going to stay down for long. At some point, with everything the organization has done to get things back on track, it’s got to produce results and there's no reason why that can’t be this year. Busch hasn’t lost his talent and Pohlman should be the right guy for the job to match his intensity and competitiveness.

Chicago's streets are out and Chicagoland Speedway is back in for 2026. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Chicagoland Speedway will be the best race

Welcome back, old friend. There are a lot of people excited to see you. Chicagoland is the perfect type of race: an intermediate with multiple lane options. The type of place where the Next Gen car has been at its best since it was rolled out a few years ago. And now that the track has sat for a few years without racing and the surface continues to age, it’s set to deliver an all-timer with drivers ready to get back to a favorite facility.

North Wilkesboro will be a disappointment

Wilkes County getting a points-paying race for the first time since 1996 is awesome. The fans are going to show up, and the atmosphere should be electric. But don’t let those things overshadow the fact that the track hasn’t exactly produced memorable races the last few years with the Next Gen car for the All-Star Race, and now we’re set for 450 laps of a full Cup Series race. The only hope that it doesn’t disappoint is that NASCAR lands on a rules package that results in something different than what short track races have produced in recent years.

SVG won’t make the Chase

Shane van Gisbergen is going to win his share of the road course races, and he might even win all four. It’s low-hanging fruit, however, to make that prediction. But even if he does sweep all of them, which all come in the regular season, and even with the overall improvement van Gisbergen is going to make this year (yep, another prediction), it’s not going to be enough to get him to top 16 in points for the final stretch of the year.

The Chase field (in no particular order):

1. William Byron
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Kyle Larson
4. Chase Elliott
5. Christopher Bell
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Tyler Reddick
8. Chase Briscoe
9. Alex Bowman
10. Chris Buescher
11. Bubba Wallace
12. Joey Logano
13. Ross Chastain
14. Ryan Preece
15. Kyle Busch
16. Brad Keselowski

Chase or not, it's hard to bet against Larson. Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Kyle Larson wins the Cup Series championship

With the Chase format, it’s a matter of winning and consistency. Keeping that in mind, you think about teams that can both win, get the most out of a good day and turn a bad day into at least something positive. Larson and the No. 5 team fit that bill. It’s a long season so when you think of who is going to be good throughout the regular season, they come to mind. And then you think about who will be ready to step it up or push even more at the end of the season, and there they are again.

Justin Allgaier wins the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championship

A veteran like Allgaier, someone who knows when to push and when to take what the car and race are giving you, should thrive under a Chase format. If it’s not a winning day, then it needs to be a good points day, and a smart driver like Allgaier will understand that, whereas perhaps some of the younger drivers who are always set on kill might get themselves in trouble. He’s been a top-five driver in the series the last two years with wins and average finish, and even with a new crew chief, Andrew Overstreet, there shouldn’t be a stumble for this team.

Layne Riggs wins the Craftsman Truck Series championship

On one hand, it’s easy to look at Riggs as the next guy in line with Corey Heim no longer running full-time. But don’t underestimate this team. Riggs has been getting the job done behind the wheel, and with more laps, he’s become a better driver. It’s a great opportunity with Heim no longer in the picture, and while there are sure to be other drivers to provide good competition, the next best guy in the series the last few years has been Riggs, and it’s his time to take the top spot.