Is the battle for NASCAR's regular season championship already over?

Tyler Reddick doesn’t feel like a man on an island, but he certainly looks like one.

The first half of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season has been the story of what Reddick has done, and then everything and everyone else in the series. Reddick has been the championship point leader since the checkered flag in the Daytona 500. An untouchable point leader, thanks to five wins in the first nine races.

And since then, Reddick and his 23XI Racing team have simply kept to themselves while doing what they need to do each week. Reddick might not be the center of attention during the races, and he might be on a five-race winless drought, but by the time the pay window opens, that No.45 car is where it needs to be to maximize the day.

Reddick might have the biggest target on his back (one that will only get larger when the Chase comes), however, he’s just one piece of the Toyota problem that the rest of the garage has right now. Denny Hamlin finally broke through on Sunday night at Nashville Superspeedway to give him multiple wins on the season, and he is solidly holding down second in the standings.

The dangerous thing about Hamlin, as it was in 2025, is that his team has maintained its speed and execution from track to track. No matter the style or the aero package, Hamlin is in contention for stage points, laps led, and the win.

Yet he even believes Reddick is out of reach for the regular-season championship, and is focused on the final 10 weeks of the season and the hunt for that elusive trophy.

“Not really,” said Hamlin about whether there is a realistic path to the regular-season championship. “We’d have to win three or four more races. He’s going to have to have some DNFs and stuff. Not really. My goal is to try to stay P2, and that will be close enough with 10 to go.”

Toyota is clearly the class of the field as we go into the summer months. They have the fastest cars and the most wins, and appear to be the most stable across the board.

Ford has Ryan Blaney. The former series champion has long been the flagbearer for Team Penske and his manufacturer, and that hasn’t changed. He is the fastest and most consistent Ford driver.

“I don’t think it is a secret that our strong suit hasn’t been the mile-and-a-halfs,” said Blaney. “It’s a place where we have to kind of do everything right and execute really well to run fifth. The Toyotas have been really strong at those racetracks. You have to figure it out at those kinds of places, and they’ve done a good job with that, and we have some room to make up. But I’ve been happy with most everything else we’ve been doing.

“I feel like I’d give our score an A- right now.”

Blaney is carrying the banner for Ford, but mile-and-a-halfs are proving to be a weakness. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Chevrolet, meanwhile, is still working on its new puzzle, i.e., its body. It has created more of a challenge than anticipated, and it’s taken some time to get comfortable with how it performs and responds.

But it’s not doom and gloom for the Chevrolet camp. Chase Elliott has multiple wins and sits in the top five in points. Kyle Larson isn’t far behind, even while winless. And, of course, Spire Motorsports has broken out with two wins already between Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez. Both sit inside the top 10 in the points.

Except, by Chevrolet’s standards and expectations, as well as what others have come to expect, they aren’t quite where they should or need to be. Larson, for example, has led more laps by himself (569) than the five Chevrolet drivers behind him in points have combined (336). The stage point accumulation has also been less than ideal, as Larson is the only one of the six Chevy drivers in the top 12 in points who has thus far scored over 100 stage points.

“Have you seen those videos online where they grease up a watermelon, throw it in the air, and see if they can catch it? That’s what it feels like,” laughed Ross Chastain about getting a handle on the new car. “We’re trying. We’re not where we need to be yet, but we’re working hard.”

There is a lot of racing left to do, and the garage will continue to evolve. But these positives need negatives to stand out more this season for one big reason: the Chase.

The mulligans are fewer in this format. The need for consistency is greater. And there will be no falling back on the season resetting in three-week increments when the fall starts. It’s no longer about surviving, advancing, resetting.

What is happening now seems to be a good preview for what the final 10 weeks could look like in terms of who has it together enough to contend. A team that falls too far behind right now is not going to flip a switch come Chase time, and by then, might be mathematically too far behind to have a championship chance.

It has traditionally been the consensus of the garage that the Coca-Cola 600 is the milestone to hit to have a good understanding of how things stack up. It’s clear how it’s stacked up so far this year: Reddick and the rest. And if some of those from the rest are also driving a Toyota, then what’s ahead for the rest of the season looks pretty good.