Playoff clinch scenario for Daytona is simple: win

Who's in and who's out of the NASCAR playoffs all comes down to Saturday night in Daytona.

Austin Dillon moved the provisional playoff grid cutline with his victory last weekend at Richmond Raceway, and in doing so, pushed drivers further behind in trying to earn a spot on points. It’s all but impossible going into the regular-season finale. And that means the scenario for NASCAR Cup Series drivers looking to earn a berth in the postseason is quite simple: win at Daytona.

There are 20 drivers who know their fate rests on a victory:

1. Chris Buescher

2. Ryan Preece

3. Kyle Busch

4. Ty Gibbs

5. AJ Allmendinger

6. Brad Keselowski

7. Carson Hocevar

8. Michael McDowell

9. Erik Jones

10. John Hunter Nemechek

11. Zane Smith

12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

13. Daniel Suarez

14. Justin Haley

15. Todd Gilliland

16. Ty Dillon

17. Noah Gragson

18. Cole Custer

19. Riley Herbst

20. Cody Ware

Buescher is the first driver on the outside looking in on the playoff grid. He is 60 points behind Bowman.

Although a driver can earn 61 maximum points in a race (winning both stages, the race, and getting the fast lap point), the point situation doesn’t apply in this case because the win would automatically advance Buescher. In that case, his victory would knock out the last driver sitting on the playoff grid on points.

Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman are those two drivers entering Daytona. Reddick sits 15th on the provisional playoff grid, and Bowman sits 16th. If there is no new winner Saturday night, both drivers will make the postseason.

If there is a new winner, the situation comes down to a point battle between Reddick and Bowman. It is a 29-point gap going into Daytona, and the battle will be to ensure neither driver is in a position to be knocked out of a postseason spot if there is a new winner.

The drivers who are already locked into the playoffs:

1. William Byron

2. Chase Elliott

3. Denny Hamlin

4. Kyle Larson

5. Ryan Blaney

6. Christopher Bell

7. Chase Briscoe

8. Bubba Wallace

9. Joey Logano

10. Ross Chastain

11. Austin Cindric

12. Josh Berry

13. Shane van Gisbergen

14. Austin Dillon

Harrison Burton won his way into the postseason last year with Wood Brothers Racing. Burton no longer competes in the Cup Series, and the Wood Brothers are already locked in with Josh Berry.

Kyle Busch finished second to Burton in last year’s race.