ANALYSIS: Paths to the IndyCar championship

So on the eve of the final race of the season it has come down to this: two drivers capable of winning the 2016 IndyCar title, both from Team Penske.

The 555 points that Pagenaud brought into the Sonoma weekend gave him a 43-point buffer over Power, and his bonus point for winning pole has padded that out to 44. All of the numbers are on the Frenchman's side, but Power still has a way in if things fall just right for the 2014 champion.

There are too many possible points permutations to create a compete list, but here's a snapshot of each driver's most straightforward route to the Astor Cup:

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• Wins if he finishes fifth or better, regardless of what Power does.
• Wins if he finishes ninth or better and Power does not win the race Pagenaud is sixth but Power picks up more bonus points. 
• Wins if he finishes last and Power finishes sixth or lower, or finishes fifth with zero bonus points.
• Will win any tie-break on a countback to second places – unless that tie-break is forced by Power finishing second.

POWER:

• Needs to win the race, with Pagenaud no higher than fifth (or sixth with one bonus point)
• Wins on a tie-break if he finishes second and the pair are equal on points. (The two will have an equal number of wins and seconds, so Power will win on a countback to thirds, 1:0).
• Can finish third with Pagenaud no higher than 16th or 17th, depending on bonus points.
• Can finish fourth with Pagnaud no higher than 19th or 20th, depending on bonus points.
• Can finish fifth with Pagenaud no higher than 21st or 22nd depending on points.