Everything on the line for teams on IndyCar's Leaders Circle bubble at Laguna Seca finale

Sunday’s Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey at Laguna Seca will come with a hefty cost to three of the 25 entries, as the IndyCar Series’ annual race to earn one of the 22 available $1.7 million Leaders Circle contracts will be settled.

It’s 95 laps to determine who makes the final cut inside the top 22 in the Entrants’ championship, and which three entries will head into the offseason without receiving the $1.7 million payout from Penske Entertainment for their respective cars to appear at each event in 2027.

There’s been some significant movement in the Leaders Circle race since our last update, when ECR’s No. 21 entry driven by Christian Rasmussen was tied at 180 points apiece with AJ Foyt Racing’s No. 4 Chevy driven by Caio Collet.

Leaving the Milwaukee doubleheader with a pair of runs to fifth and eighth respectively, Rasmussen moved his car from 22nd in the standings to 21st and well clear of the cutoff line at 236 points.

ECR took 21st in the Entrants standings from Dale Coyne Racing’s No. 19 Honda driven by Dennis Hauger, who fell to 22nd with 223 points, but he’s also in a place of relative safety over the No. 47 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda of Mick Schumacher.

Ahead of Laguna Seca, RLL’s No. 47 entry is the first car out of the Leaders Circle sweepstakes in 23rd at 205 points, and it’s in the gaps between Rasmussen’s car to Hauger’s car (13 points), and Hauger’s car to Schumacher’s (18 points) where it will be difficult for big Entrants’ championship swings to happen.

Granted, Schumacher and the RLL team recently tested at Laguna Seca, which could play to their favor in chasing down DCR and Hauger’s No. 19 car for 22nd, but 18 points is a lot to ask in a single race where drivers at the rear of the standings rarely create a lot of separation between themselves at the finish line.

In one of the many possible scenarios, Schumacher could finish fifth – a career-best in IndyCar – and would need Hauger to place no higher than 19th to jump across the cutoff line to take 22nd in the Entrants’ standings and capture the last Leaders Circle contract. It’s not an impossibility, but the odds are long. Even so, it’s worth the effort.

RLL has sold the charter for its No. 47 entry to Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, which will move to DRR after the season finale, and while the terms of the sale aren’t known, RACER understands the charter structure calls for the value of the Leaders Circle to be added to the final sale price of the charter. If Schumacher can reach 22nd in the standings, RLL would potentially receive $1.7 million on top of the rumored $12-13 million being paid for its charter by DRR, and DRR would take possession of an entry with a Leaders Circle contract, which would obligate Penske Entertainment to pay DRR $1.7 million next season.

Behind Schumacher is Collet and the No. 4 Foyt entry. Holding 24th with 193 points, Collet would need to find 12 points to catch Schumacher and 18 more to reach Hauger, and once again, it’s not a zero-percent situation, but Collet would need to win or finish second – his best road course result so far is an 11th at Mid-Ohio – and have Hauger fall out of the race early or place towards the bottom of the field.

Barring a huge swing of fortunes for both drivers, Foyt’s No. 4 car is facing an uphill battle to avoid losing out on a $1.7 million infusion from the series next year.

Juncos Hollinger Racing’s No. 77 driven by Sting Ray Robb in 25th has 173 points, which is 48 behind Hauger in 22nd. Hauger will earn five points for starting the race and move the margin to 53 points if he takes the green flag. To overtake the No. 19 Coyne car in the Leaders Circle chase, Robb would need to take the point for pole position, lead a lap and earn that point, lead the most laps and take those two points, and win his first IndyCar race to amass 54 points and snare the final $1.7 million contract for JHR by one point.

But Hauger would need to place 25th and last at Laguna for that to happen, and Schumacher would also need to experience a calamity for this to work.

Said another way, Robb would require divine intervention to reach the top 22 and deliver a Leaders Circle in his last race for JHR.

ECR with Rasmussen, Coyne with Hauger, and RLL with Schumacher have important business to get done for their teams in a few days. The race to hold onto or capture $1.7 million starts at 12pm local (3pm ET) this Sunday on FOX.