Ferrari facing challenging weekend as championship battle reaches critical phase

The World Endurance Championship points leaders at Ferrari AF Corse are expecting another difficult race at the Fuji Speedway tomorrow as the Hypercar manufacturers' and drivers' world championship battles reach a critical stage in the penultimate encounter of the season.

With qualifying in the books in Japan and the point for pole handed to Hertz Team Jota's No. 12 crew, there is now a maximum haul of just 64 points up for grabs across the final two races and qualifying in Bahrain in the Drivers' Championship. The best placed non-Ferrari crew in the Drivers' classification – Laurens Vanthoor and Kevin Estre in the No. 6 from Porsche – are 36 points off the leading No. 51 trio of Alessandro Pier Guidi, James Calado and Antonio Giovinazzi.

In the manufacturers' standings, it's even rosier for the 'Prancing Horse' as Ferrari's lead over Porsche is 65 points. The Italian marque has a chance to turn the screw with a strong result and can win the world championship if it outscores Porsche by two points or more tomorrow.

But while things may look comfortable at first glance, the expectation internally at Ferrari is that it is in for a difficult race day.

Its head of performance, Mauro Barbieri, believes the Japanese circuit will once again prove to be a tough nut to crack for the 499Ps across the six hours. The twisty final sector doesn't play to the car's strengths, and the BoP for the event isn't helping matters.

The Ferraris, along with Toyota's GR1010s, are running as the heaviest cars in the field at 1060 kg, impacting their top speed down the 1.4 km pit straight.

"As with any other race, we'll just try to do our best, and then after the chequered flag, we'll do the calculations and see the outcome. We're just trying to stay focused on optimising our package. It's about taking the chequered flag, staying out of trouble and optimizing the performance of the car. There's nothing special to do at this stage," Barbieri said. "A bit like Sao Paulo, this is a track that doesn't suit the car perfectly."

With Ferrari downplaying its chances of silverware once again, its dominance in the first half of the season – in which a 449P won each of the first four races at Qatar, Imola, Spa and Le Mans – is beginning to feel like a distant memory.

One of the big questions is whether Ferrari will use team orders to shore up its championship bid. Will there be big decisions to make in the closing stages of the race? It's the million Yen question right now.

Strategically, Ferrari may find itself in a position to eliminate the crews from Porsche and Cadillac that still have a mathematical chance at the drivers' title, especially as the No. 6 963 is starting 17th and the No. 51 qualified sixth. However, Barbieri feels it wouldn't be fair to "sacrifice" the No. 50 crew's race, for instance, in aid of the better-placed sister car at this stage of the season.

"On the driver's side, the classification is quite open. I think it's too early to think about winning the driver's championship or closing it here," he added. "The drivers are keen to help each other. Any choices must be made at the right time, at the right moment, and this race is too early to take such a decision."

Adding to the complications is the fact that the contenders in the Le Mans-winning No. 83, Robert Kubica, Phil Hanson and Yifei Ye, are just 15 points adrift in the privately-entered 499P from AF Corse and will start 10th.

They have their own set of goals, though Kubica admits that the "chances of making up ground are getting slimmer and slimmer" for him and his teammates. And when he was asked if the No. 83 would be able to run its own race and be allowed to pass the No. 51, he gave a non-committal answer: "It is becoming a difficult game. We will see if we have a chance or not."

Interestingly, prior to Qualifying, Giovinazzi felt he and his co-drivers in the No. 51 would be more concerned with the CoTA-winning No. 6 Porsche's progress than the No. 83 during the race.

"The No. 83 has been consistent this year, but I think more about Porsche right now, as the No. 6 is P3 and they are strong here. They can gain a lot of points. It's a big threat," he said.

But with the No. 6 starting so far back, attention shifts back to the No. 83, and to the No. 12 Cadillac, which will start from pole and is still in with an outsider's chance at the title.

"It was a positive qualifying," Giovinazzi said. "In the end, we are missing on the straight and in acceleration in the third sector, but overall the car is much better here than last year; it's a good improvement. It's not enough, though; we are losing too much, so there's nothing we can do. I would have signed for P6 before Quali, so no complaints.

"Our pace is not that bad; we can stay where we are, but to overtake will be so difficult. I don't know where we can fight. The goal is to just stay where we are and score as many points as we can."

There is, of course, the potential for drama if either of the No. 51 or No. 50 factory cars hit trouble or end up fighting tooth and nail just to stay in the points-paying positions. Keeping it clean early on and avoiding a repeat of last year – when the No. 51 and No. 83 were involved in a multi-car incident at Turn 1 early in the race – will likely be key to unlocking a strong result.

The weather could also play a decisive role. Fuji’s notorious microclimate has kept teams guessing all week, and rain remains a constant threat. Giovinazzi is openly hoping for a downpour to level the playing field.

“If it’s wet, everything can change,” he said. “In the dry, we just need to survive.”