And then there were two, but O'Ward faces an uphill battle

A new IndyCar Series champion could be crowned on Sunday in Portland.

Alex Palou achieved the feat at the same road course in 2023, and did so with one race left on the schedule. Thanks to his unbelievable year of success, the Spaniard could clinch the title on August 10 with two races waiting to be run in the 17-race season that ends on Aug. 31.

That’s the dire state of reality awaiting Palou’s Arrow McLaren rival Pato O’Ward who needs to cut the Chip Ganassi Racing driver’s championship lead to no more than 107 points by the end of the BitNile.com Grand Prix.

Palou holds an advantage of 121 points over O’Ward, and once the race is over, there’s a maximum of 108 points left to earn across Milwaukee and Nashville. Getting below that 108-point threshold after 110 laps in Portland is the only mission for O’Ward and his No. 5 Chevy crew.

For O’Ward to keep his sliver of a championship hope alive, he must reach the finish line ahead of Palou’s No. 10 Honda; he needed it to happen at the last race in Monterey but Palou won from pole and extended his championship lead by 22 points. It was the final time O’Ward could come home in Palou’s rearview mirrors without surrendering the title.

There are scenarios where O’Ward can finish well at Portland, Palou can have an unrewarding day, and the championship will be unsettled heading into the penultimate race at Milwaukee, but Portland is akin to O’Ward’s last stand. Out of options, O’Ward’s down to a single race to try and prevent Palou from becoming a four-time champion. If he’s successful, the last stand moves to Milwaukee.

Palou could finish on O’Ward’s tail and still manage to clinch this weekend, which means the Arrow McLaren driver has the unenviable task of creating meaningful separation to his main rival who thrives at the 1.9-mile circuit. It’s a pole, two wins, and three podiums for Palou at Portland since 2021; O’Ward’s best is a pair of fourths.

These are the last two drivers with a shot at the title, and if O’Ward’s able to pull off a miracle in the Pacific Northwest to stay in the fight, wait until Milwaukee is run and the threshold is slashed in half heading into Nashville. Think of it like walls that are closing in on O’Ward. Unless Palou’s advantage is cut to below 108 this weekend, it’s game over. If O’Ward takes it to something under 108 and stays alive in the championship for Milwaukee, he needs to erase a huge deficit to get Palou’s lead to less than 54 points entering the season finale in Nashville or the title chase will be over in Wisconsin.

It's a daunting task to go from 121 points back entering Portland to beneath 108 on Sunday, then to a number south of 54 after the penultimate race. And this isn’t a case of actually fighting for the championship; it’s simply to stave off championship elimination.

For that to happen, Palou needs to experience two epic failures in a row, and while such things could take place, the odds are long. In terms of strategies, hoping for the most consistent podium finisher of 2025 to have two terrible finishes isn’t an actual plan; O’Ward and Arrow McLaren must out-perform Palou and Ganassi in Portland or benefit from adversity that befalls the three-time champ.

It’s a binary event for the Mexican: Finish with the 5 car in front of the 10 car, and with somewhere between three to five cars between them for good measure, if not more. Otherwise, it’s congratulating Palou and watching Chip Ganassi’s team partake in championship celebrations for the fifth time this decade, which began with Scott Dixon’s dominant title run in 2020.

The walls are closing in. How will O’Ward and Arrow McLaren respond?