Here's the third and final installment of SportsCar magazine's fearless predictions of who will win this weekend's SCCA National Championship Runoffs at Virginia International Raceway.

E Production, F Production & H Production

Words: J. Michael Hemsley

E Production

It’s hard to argue against success, and Jesse Prather has had considerable triumph as both a race car builder and driver. Since he transitioned to a BMW Z3, he’s earned three poles, two championships, and a third-place finish at the Runoffs in E Production. That third came the last time the Runoffs was at VIR, and it was one little error that kept him from converting a pole to a championship. We’re betting he doesn’t make that mistake again.

Matt Reynolds, another very successful EP racer, is not coming to VIR with his EP Mazda Miata this year, but several other fast guys are. John Hainsworth continues to improve his open-top Mazda RX-7. He’s finished in second and third in previous years, and he’ll be doing his best to prove that SportsCar is wrong this year.

Jon Brakke, a former EP champion, will be testing his Prather-built

BMW Z3 against its builder at VIR. Brakke has been sorting his car, and it’s been getting faster all year. As for others, Prather says, “If Tim Schreyer comes, he’ll be right there as well [so far he has not entered]. I know Jeff Young has made big strides in his super cool Triumph TR8 as well, and Joe Carr will have a new engine in his [Mazda MX-5].”

It will be Prather in his BMW, though, who will take the checker for a third consecutive championship.

F Production

What a great class. At first glance, it looks like an Integra versus Miata class, but there’s one Honda Del Sol and one Lotus 7 that will be working hard to insert themselves into the battle.

Kevin Ruck has had considerable success with his Acura, but, as he says, “It’s always a tremendous honor to receive this nod as the favorite to win the Runoffs, but it never seems to bring me much luck as I’m two-for-two on being named the favorite and leaving the Runoffs with a hole in my block!” Ruck, though, is very good at learning from his car and improving it.

One of the guys trying to ensure that SportsCar is wrong is multi-time FP champ Eric Prill in his Miata. Prill’s Miata is fast and reliable, and Prill is an excellent driver. Cliff Ira’s Del Sol stands out among the others because it is so different, but it’s also fast, as he showed at Indy.

Ken Kannard now has the Integra that Mark Carpenter used to win two championships, and you’d be foolish to ignore Craig Chima in that fast Lotus 7.

As always, F Production will deliver a great race, especially at such a great track as VIR.

H Production

Sometimes you just have to bet against success. Few have been as successful in H Production as Steve Sargis in his Triumph Spitfire; but at VIR, Will Perry has been someone to reckon with. Perry finished second the last time the Runoffs was at VIR, and he scored a win and a second there this spring.

“I think I have a chance of winning, but Steve Sargis is going to be tough to beat,” Perry says, recognizing the challenge.

Sargis will be very fast and probably take the pole, but he’ll have several drivers, including Perry, hounding him on the straights and in the curves. Those include Eric Vickerman in an MG that’s well accustomed to the Runoffs. At the time this is written, Vickerman is not sure he’ll be attending, but says the chance he’ll be there is 90 percent.

The last time the Runoffs was held at VIR, Vesa Silegren won in his Honda CRX, but he had quite a hard crash at Indy and is still working on getting his car to perform well. And watch for Enrik Benazik in his Honda Civic – he scored a second-place finish this spring at VIR’s Hoosier Super Tour, beating Vickerman.

As always with HP, there will be some mechanical issues, but the fast guys are usually there at the end.

David Pintaric, GT1. Rick Corwine photo

GT-1, GT-2, GT-3 & GT-Lite

Words: Reece White and J. Michael Hemsley

GT-1

Last year in this space, following a conversation with our pick to win, David Pintaric, we laid out a caveat: none of the information was valid if it rained, and Thomas Herb’s Porsche was going to go from an outclassed ride to a major contender. As we now know, it did rain, Herb did win, and he’s a National Champion.

So where to go this year? Let’s start in the same place as last year. Pintaric was our official pick a year ago, and he stays on top this year. He can drive, he’s got the equipment with some Ave power in his Mustang, and the Goodyear tires seem the most likely to go the distance.

We don’t expect it to be easy. Michael Lewis is always a contender with equipment that’s as reliable as anyone in GT-1, although his Jaguar doesn’t necessarily have the power of other GT-1 cars. He leads the Hoosier Super Tour points, and no one would be shocked to see him wearing a medal.

Adam Romito was already on this list, but Pintaric specifically called his number as well – that Dodge Challenger is poised to make some noise, literally and figuratively.

Ah, but it is VIR in October, so what happens if it rains? We called it last year, and we’re pretty confident this year. You can almost see his sly smile when asked, but if it rains, we still expect to see Pintaric on a bit of a revenge tour.

Andrew Aquilante, GT2. Barbara Protos photo

GT-2

Let’s face it, until proven otherwise, the GT-2 prediction starts with Andrew Aquilante. No, it’s not a lock, but in eight class starts he has four wins, a pair of seconds, and a DNF where he led five laps early in the race, all in a Phoenix Performance-built machine. Last year’s race at Indy would have been better served in a boat, so even that silver medal is a wash, no pun intended.

So who can rattle that streak? There is a fairly significant list of names on our radar. For the runner-up, we’ve chosen Kevin Allen. It’s his home track, he’s historically had the tube-frame car to beat in this class, and his Mallen Alley shop has had a lot of success at the Club and Pro level this season. Hans Peter, a three-time Formula Atlantic champion, leads the Hoosier Super Tour points, and is in a Porsche 911 GT3 Cup car – which likely means the most all-around balanced car in the field, never a bad thing at VIR.

The wild card? Tony Ave in his Runoffs GT-2 debut. Currently he’s registered in the former Jim Goughary Nissan 350Z, but word on the street is that there might be a secret weapon in development. Even if not, an improved-by-Ave Motorsports Nissan might be enough to take down the field. But the list of contenders goes on: Tom Patton; the Fall-Line gang including Mark Boden, Tim Kezman (the defending champ), and Thomas Herb; Lou Gigliotti and Scotty White.

In other words, this might be the race of the weekend.

GT-3

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Tony Ave, Michael Lewis, and Troy Ermish walk into a paddock…

GT-3 is always one of our toughest races to call. The drivers are among the best at the event, and they’re all excellent car builders. But the fact is, making a GT-3 car go fast requires putting it on the edge, and then taking care of it, for a whole week.

That means one loose bolt or crossed wire can end the day early. Ermish and his team pulled off a remarkable win at Indianapolis a year ago, putting the car back together after a test day rollover. Lewis and his team will spend the week swapping motors, among other things, as he runs the same car in both GT-3 and GT-Lite.

Can both keep up the good fortune for another Runoffs week? You bet they can, but we’re still going to land on Tony Ave when we roll the dice. And it’s a big roll as the only Acura in a field full of mostly Mazda-powered vehicles.

And there are others ready to pounce. Jeff Dehrnel is almost always running at the finish; Stacy Wilson is a former champ and also builds son Blake’s car, and Tony Rivera is returning to the Runoffs for the first time in more than 10 years.

But we keep talking about the wet stuff. If that happens, the underpowered TCR car of Alex Mayer is suddenly nimble and front-wheel drive, which isn’t a bad place to be.

GT Lite

GT Lite might come down to which driver can manage to race in multiple classes in very different cars. Both Peter Shadowen in his Honda CRX Si and Michael Lewis in a Mazda RX-7 are experienced in their GT-Lite cars, but Shadowen is also running in P2, and Lewis in GT-1 and GT-3. Shadowen is a multiple GTL champion, and Lewis is a multiple GT-1 and GT-3 champion. That does suggest that Shadowen might have the advantage in GTL, but Lewis has shown considerable speed in his Mazda, finishing third in class last year. Both are excellent drivers, so this could be quite a race.

And, speaking of excellent drivers, Brian Linn has several championships under his belt in H Production.

“The uncertainty could be Brian Linn,” muses Shadowen. “I know the car, and I know the driver, but I’ve never raced against that combination.”

Linn is fast and smooth, but he’s a West Coast racer who’s not had much, if any, experience at VIR, which could be a disadvantage.

Two who have had experience at VIR are Graham Fuller (Honda CRX) and James Gregorius (Mazda RX-7). They’ve each won a GTL race at VIR during this year’s Hoosier Super Tour.

Spec Miata

Words: Jeff Zurschmeide

Predicting the outcome of a Spec Miata race is a lot like predicting the winner of a bar fight, but consider this: Preston Pardus has competed at the Runoffs six times and three of those times he won his race, plus finished second once. That impressive record already makes him the winningest driver in Spec Miata Runoffs history. If he grabs first again this year, he’ll have won three times in a row. So we’re playing it safe and predicting another Pardus win, with Connor Zilisch and Travis Wiley rounding out the podium.

With 59 entries registered at press time, there are a number of past champions in the mix, including two-time SM champion Jim Drago and three-time STL champ Danny Steyn, so before we hang the medal around Pardus’s neck, there’s a race to be run. To give us the insider view we asked Steyn, who’s always in the mix but has yet to claim top honors in SM.

“I think all the usual players will be there,” Steyn says. “I’m guessing Connor Zilisch will be a favorite, along with Pardus and Drago. Elivan Goulart will be a contender, too, along with Nick Bruni, Todd Buras, Peter Ensor, Charles Mactutus and Rob Hines.”

Travis Wiley tends to agree. “It will be Connor Zilisch and maybe Jim Drago since he’s particularly good there,” he says. “But I think it’ll be Connor who’s going to be hardest to beat.”

Steyn is also looking at an impressive new player who could disrupt the conventional wisdom.

“Raiden Nicol is a 14-year-old whiz kid,” Steyn declares. “He just beat me at Road Atlanta, my home track, and he kicked my ass! This guy is exceptionally talented. In my opinion, he’s got a really good shot at it.”

Steyn also emphasizes the strategic nature of the VIR circuit.

“It’s so important to qualify near the front there,” he explains. “It’s not an easy track to pass on. You’ve just got to be so patient, because there are not a lot of passing opportunities. It’s easy to come alongside a guy, but it’s not that easy to get past him and go cleanly. And if you go alongside in Spec Miata, both of you fall back, so the idea is to pass and move forward. And that’s the hard part.”

Marshall Mast, Touring 3. Barbara Protos photo

Touring 1, 2, 3 & 4

Words: Richard S. James

Touring 1

Touring 1 has been Andrew Aquilante’s playground for a long time, and it usually takes a mechanical issue for him not to win in his Ford Mustang. And if he doesn’t win, Mark Boden has been right there to take the victory when Aquilante has an issue.

“We wouldn’t be going if I didn’t have a shot at winning,” says Aquilante, before listing other contenders. “Mark Boden is going to be the strongest one. The BMW, as we could see from last year, was strong and nothing’s changed. There’s some cars from the West Coast that, if they enter, if they can’t win I don’t know what’s wrong with their driving…”

Boden got knocked out of last year’s championship race early, so we didn’t get to see what his BMW might have done in interesting conditions, but he won in similarly interesting conditions at VIR in 2019. And while Boden has been toying with a Mercedes-AMG GT4, he says he’s going to bring the proven BMW E92 M3.

The car count is low so far, with only eight confirmed entries. Of those, we believe local knowledge might be an advantage, so we think another Mustang man, Robert Korzen, has a good shot at the podium. Other contenders include Hugh Stewart, Timothy Rubright and S. Sandy Satullo III.

Touring 2

“I think there’s going to be more variety in T2 this year than there has been in past years, and a lot of fast guys,” says podium pick Mark Boden. The mounts for our podium picks include a BMW, a Mustang and a Porsche, so he may not be far off.

Charlie Peter has two consecutive second-place finishes at the SCCA National Championship Runoffs. He’s upgraded from BMW’s 235iR to the more potent M2 CS, so between that and his greater experience, it’s likely time to move up a step. But Mustang racer and three-time T2 champ Kurt Rezzetano isn’t likely to make it easy.

“Kurt Rezzetano; of course Charlie Peter … Tim Kezman is going to be fast,” Boden says, listing potential contenders. “I think those are going to be the pointy end of the field. There are a few other fast guys that come in, but Kurt and Charlie are probably the top two picks right now.”

Boden is our pick for third in his trusty Porsche, but could easily surprise at VIR. David Sanders has been getting closer to the podium in recent years and could be a contender, too. Scotty B. White made the T2 podium last year in a Viper, but has entered with the Ford Mustang EcoBoost that he ran in 2020.

Touring 3

In five Runoffs appearances, Marshall Mast has three National Championships in Touring 3. The last time he didn’t win a championship was in 2019, the Runoffs’ previous visit to VIR. We’re betting that in 2022 he adds the famed road course to the list of tracks at which he’s won titles.

“I think my chances are pretty good,” Mast says. “I think Jason Ott, Breton Williams and Chris Hart are going to be tough. I was beat [in 2019] by Broderick Baugess in a Spec E46, so I know those cars are going to be fast around VIR. Rob Hines and Derek Kulach in Nissans are going to be pretty stiff competition also.”

Mast is back in the EcoBoost Mustang, and says he feels he’s progressed as a driver, which can’t be something his competitors want to hear.

Jason Ott has had limited running this year in Hoosier Super Tour events, so he’s a little hard to gauge, but he’s usually quick in the BMW Z4 M Coupe. Still, he’s certainly going to have his hands full with Mast and Hines. Hines won both parts of the Super Tour at VIR in his Nissan over Williams, so he’s looking very strong for a podium finish.

Touring 4

In addition to Touring 3, where he’s a three-time champ, Marshall Mast is contesting T4 in a Scion FR-S. He’s our pick to win, but he’s going to have a real fight in store.

“I’ve run more Super Tours and Majors this year in T4,” Mast says. “I was racing against Marc Cefalo most of the time, so I know he’s going to be tough. I just barely had him in most of the races. I had a massive battle with him at Watkins Glen, and I know that car is going to be quick. For other guys, it’s the usual contenders -- Michael Borden is going to be tough, and Chi Ho and his BMW.”

Cefalo and his MX-5 have been tearing it up everywhere they go, so he’s about as sure a thing for the podium as it gets. And defending champ John Heinricy will be up there, because, well, Heinricy. Don’t count out Izzy Sanchez or Chris Windsor, either.

T4 is looking at a big field made up largely of BRZ/86/FR-S entries and MX-5s, but there will be some other cars thrown in. Mast thinks there might be a surprise in there.

“I feel like T4 is the class where somebody’s just gonna show up in possibly an RX-8 and surprise all of us,” he says. “So, yeah, I’m kind of expecting somebody who I didn’t think was going to be a contender to be one. I think the rules for T4 are super close as far as every make and model of car, so it’s going to be tough, especially with the draft at VIR.”