Who will win the SCCA Runoffs? Part 1: Production-based classes

When it was announced that Indianapolis Motor Speedway would host the 2017 SCCA National Championship Runoffs on Sept. 25-Oct. 1, it was obvious things were about to get real. All race season the buzz has been palpable, and the moment event registration opened in July, records began to break. This will truly be a Runoffs like no other.

Within 24 hours of registration kicking off in June, 763 drivers had signed up, putting registration well ahead of the pace of the 2016 Runoffs, which saw 413 entries in the same period of time. But with the event just a week away now, the question is, who will take the gold? With so many people set to descend on the Brickyard, the task of guessing a winner is difficult. But don't worry, that's what we're here for with our annual – and debatably ill-thought-out – prognostications.

American Sedan, B-Spec, Super Touring Lite, Super Touring Under
In a career stretching back to 1990, Andy McDermid has stood atop the American Sedan Runoffs podium eight times, including back-to-back championships in 2015 and '16 – with the 2016 win coming in a very unlikely way via one of the most unbelievable last laps in recent Runoffs memory. Consequently, it would be silly to bet against him.

"I like our chances," McDermid says. "The car is going along really well. We found a couple more things that we're pretty happy about."

But there will be several strong contenders for this year's crown. Ed Hosni won the 2012 AS championship and ran in the lead for most of last year's race until a mechanical failure took him out on the last lap. Hosni is our choice for second place this year.

"I think that Hosni has a very fast car for a track like Indy, so he'll be a challenge," McDermid admits.

Philip Smith finished a strong third last year, and is our choice for third again this year, but also in the mix is 13-time National Champion John Heinricy, who has entered his 2002 Camaro.

The polar opposite of an American Sedan racecar is a B-Spec car, but that doesn't mean the racing is any less intense. This year, we think John Phillips III has what it takes to claim his first National Championship in B-Spec. "I've run my butt off this year as hard as I could everywhere," Phillips says, "I've been running against everybody and, hopefully, I've got it all together to pull it off."

Our pick for second position is last year's winner and nine-time National Champion David Daughtery. But he's building a new car for Indy and could easily take his 10th championship come the Runoffs. "John Phillips is certainly on his game," Daughtery says. "But I am the only one who has beat him this year. We have had fantastic races."

John Heinricy is our choice for third place, but he could also make a play for the win. With 13 National Championships to his credit, Heinricy is always a strong contender. Phillips has some other drivers in mind as well.

"I would never count out Joe Gersch," Phillips reckons. "He's been running real strong all year long, and Brian Kelm is a past National Champion. I wouldn't count any of these guys out."

After winning back-to-back championships in Super Touring Lite, Kevin Boehm has moved to Super Touring Under this year, clearing the way for last year's runner-up Eric Kutil to be our pick to take the STL championship. Kutil is an engineer at Honda in Ohio, and will be driving his 1992 Civic with Acura power.

"I've been a Honda guy my whole life," Kutil says. "Working at Honda, I met a lot of other engineers and a lot of those guys have been racing STL and STU, so they've got a lot of knowledge."

Our second place pick is Cliff Ira, who won the STL championship in 2014, finished second in 2015, and third last year. Our pick for third is Nick Leverone, who finished fourth last year, and fifth in 2015.

"I haven't raced against Cliff this year," Kutil admits. "I'm also kind of worried about Danny Steyn because I haven't raced with him at all. Leverone is one of the few people who beat me this year. I think he's a really good driver. Regarding Hondas, Brian Shanfeld is pretty quick – he's been giving me a lot of problems this year."

Kevin Boehm's move to Super Touring Under could shake things up in that class, but our pick to win STU this year is the reigning champion Joe Moser. Moser campaigns his 1993 Honda Prelude in both STU and in E Production. "This year we worked on reliability, and the results showed," Moser says. "Six poles, six wins, and three track records in E Prod racing. We do have some things up our sleeve for the STU race this year. We think we're going to have a little more power this time around."

Our picks for the rest of the STU podium are Luis Rivera for second and Max Gee to make the podium in third. But those aren't necessarily the drivers keeping Moser up at night. "There are two guys who worry me the most, actually," Moser says. "Number one is Rob Huffmaster. He's an incredible driver and his car is finally coming together. Then there's John Schmitt. Of course, John's always going to be at the top. I'd say those are the two guys who scare me the most."

Other dark horse STU contenders could include Brad McCall and John Weisberg, assuming that Boehm doesn't upset the apple cart.

Touring 1, Touring 2, Touring 3, Touring 4
On Sept. 29, the Runoffs races kick off with Touring 1, and this likely won't disappoint. Our go-to pick for T1 is once again Andrew Aquilante. In 2016, Aquilante didn't have his new Mustang ready, opting instead to jump into one of the Phoenix Corvettes. Aquilante qualified second, and kept eventual winner Ross Murray honest up until the engine in his C7 expired.

With more time in the shop to prep the Mustang, and the factory-built racecars like the Viper Competition Coupe no longer in T1, it's hard to pick anyone other than Aquilante to win T1. "I'm never really committed to a car, especially two months out from the race, but I'd say it's a 98-percent chance it will be a Mustang," says Aquilante. "I was building the car for last year and it missed the bell, so at least I'm not in a scramble to build something."

The other thing going in Aquilante's favor is track knowledge; a commodity that very few have as the Runoffs visits Indianapolis for the first time. "I've run all the pieces of the Runoffs layout," says Aquilante. "I feel it will be very hard to pass cleanly, so getting out of Turn 1 in the lead, and not being taken out by a hero coming from five rows back will be very important."

The rest of the podium is a bit harder to predict, as so many will be battling for those two steps. We have seen Marc Hoover make big strides with his turbocharged Mazda Miata and, if he can keep it running, it could be his year to return to the podium. Mark Boden is also a safe pick, having already recorded a Trans Am TA3 win at the Brickyard.

Closing out Friday will be the Touring 3 race, which is slated to share the track with B-Spec, making traffic management an essential skill. This class has been in a bit of flux all season, and it's hard to predict which car/driver combo has the right stuff. The BMWs look strong, and we think Ali Salih is at the pointy end of that group, but traffic could be an issue for him. "Spec E46-based T3 cars have a good qualifying pace," says Salih. "When the track ahead is clear we can put a decent time on the board. However, I have major doubts of the performance in traffic or in a wheel-to-wheel racing situation."

We expect Marshall Mast, and Derek Kulach to round out the podium, but there are also some wild cards to watch like Todd Lamb who has already raced there in his Global MX-5 Cup car.

On Sept. 30, we will see Touring 2 take to the track, and we expect to see Kurt Rezzetano out front again. "So far, to win races this year, I have had to take chances and run 110-percent every lap to win," says Rezzetano. "At Indy, it's going to be more of the same."

Look for Corvette driver John Buttermore – who, had it not been for a brake problem, might have pulled off the upset at Mid-Ohio in 2016 – to be hot on Rezzetano's heels.

We think Michael Lavigne will back up his 2016 finish, but he will have a lot of guys to hold off in the process.

As the calendar turns to Oct. 1, we will see Touring 4 take to the track, and it's unlikely that anyone will challenge 2016 standout Oscar Jackson Jr. as he takes aim to defend his title. "I try to not get caught up in the results throughout the year, because the front runners change once we get to the big show," says Jackson. "I know the East Coast boys bring their best, and I look forward to the challenge."

Chasing after Jackson will be Darren Seltzer, Don Knowles, and a gaggle of MX-5 drivers.

This article originally appeared in the October 2017 issue of SportsCar magazine, SCCA's official member magazine, which mails monthly to all members of the Sports Car Club of America. For more information about how to join the SCCA, head to www.scca.com.