MEDLAND: A rock and a hard place

Last year, Daniil Kvyat spent his birthday at the top of a toboggan run at the Sanki Sliding Centre in the mountains to the north of Sochi. He was finding his way at a big team, part of a big media event as a Red Bull driver at his home race and facing questions about Sebastian Vettel's reaction to his driving in China a fortnight earlier.

At the time there was plenty of backing for the Russian. Vettel's accusatory comments did not receive a huge amount of support, and Kvyat's third place had allowed him the opportunity to respond to praise from team principal Christian Horner with a radio message stating he hoped his trip to the podium would be the first of many that season.

When I asked Kvyat about his reply to Horner, he admitted that they were words he had chosen carefully, as he had felt a little bit of pressure growing around him after a difficult start to the season. It had hardly been a spectacular drive, but a solid one that achieved a good result, and the impression at the time was it could be the catalyst for Kvyat's campaign.

This year, Kvyat turned 23 while trying his hand at curling, but in team clothing I would not have expected to see him in 12 months ago. It has been a hugely testing year, and one that leaves the Russian's F1 career in a very strange position.

Perhaps eager to build on that China result, or perhaps still aware of uncertainty over his seat, Russia did not prove to be a happy home race for Kvyat last year. Vettel's complaints about Kvyat's driving on the opening lap were much more acceptable this time around, with contact at Turn 2 causing damage to both the Ferrari and Daniel Ricciardo's Red Bull.

Of course Ricciardo wasn't happy to have his race compromised by his teammate – he demanded an apology - but there was a strong reaction to the error. It should be noted, Esteban Gutierrez caused a similar incident involving Nico Hulkenberg and Rio Haryanto, but by racing closer to the front, Kvyat ensured that it was he who was the talking point.

While waiting for Horner to emerge and reveal what he had discussed with Vettel on the Red Bull pit wall mid-race, I remember Jos Verstappen casually leaning against the hospitality unit and stirring the pot. "Is something going on?" he mischievously asked, fully aware of the likelihood his son would soon be in Kvyat's seat.

Once the shock driver switch was made, Kvyat appeared to have regressed in Barcelona. Not as a driver - he took the fastest lap and scored a point - but he looked less sure of himself. As he struggled mid season, it became almost impossible to envisage a situation where Kvyat would keep his seat at Toro Rosso. At times he bore the resemblance of a guilty man awaiting sentencing.

A strong finish to the season, allied to a lack of top quality options knocking on the door - Pierre Gasly only just edged out rookie team-mate Antonio Giovinazzi for the GP2 title, and behind him was an uncharacteristic gap on the Red Bull conveyor belt of talent - Kvyat retained the drive. But that doesn't really answer the questions surrounding him.

At Toro Rosso, Carlos Sainz is so highly rated that he has also been linked with moves to the likes of Ferrari and Renault. Again, Red Bull isn't going to be fond of the idea of supporting a driver all the way to F1 and having him prove his potential, only for him to then go and fulfill it elsewhere. As a result, there's a slight chance he may become an exception, and remain for a fourth year at Toro Rosso. So where does that leave Kvyat?

This year, there have been encouraging early signs that Kvyat has put the troubles of last season behind him. Don't underestimate how difficult that is to do: one experienced driver on the grid told me in Bahrain he was hugely impressed with the Russian's mental strength to be able to produce strong performances after the setback he suffered in 2016. But the reality remains that Kvyat is fourth out of four in Helmut Marko's eyes when it comes to the current Red Bull pecking order.

As a result, strong performances are not going to be enough. Kvyat needs to do something spectacular this season, and even that might not be sufficient. It feels inevitable that he will be replaced at some stage - Sainz, of course, has yet to have the chance to prove himself in a Red Bull - and his reputation has been damaged by the past 12 months.

A big team will see Kvyat as a gamble because he has failed once in a front-running outfit already, and without backing - the majority having been provided by Red Bull throughout his career - he becomes less attractive to a midfield set-up. Even Renault already has a young Russian in Sergey Sirotkin as part of its driver line-up, and Sirotkin brings SMP support.

Should a major surprise happen and Ricciardo or Verstappen head off to Ferrari or Mercedes at the end of the year, then Sainz would get his chance at the big time. Perhaps the lack of options other than Gasly means Kvyat earns a reprieve for another year, but a driver with four seasons of experience behind him doesn't really fit the Toro Rosso mantra.

And therein lies the problem for Kvyat right now. Drivers dream of winning races and becoming Formula 1 world champion, but despite already being in the sport, there is no clear path for him to chase, no obvious motivation for his future, no carrot on a stick.

Even if he continues to perform well, as he has been, Kvyat appears to be on borrowed time. His F1 career is in limbo, and it would take a shock almost as big as last year's driver switch for him to return to being a Red Bull driver. It's fair to say every other driver on the grid can think of their F1 futures with greater optimism than the 23-year-old.

At least he might be able to make his own birthday plans next year.