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NASCAR clinch scenarios for all three series
NASCAR Championship Weekend has arrived.
All three national series titles will be decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with different scenarios in each. So long to the winner-take-all finale.
Of the three series and the 10 drivers who are still championship-eligible, only three have previously won the title in that series. For all the others, a triumph this weekend would be the first of their career.
Kyle Larson is the closest to a title of all three series. Larson leads Christopher Bell by 67 points and Denny Hamlin by 70 points.
Here are the clinch scenarios and numbers for the Cup Series title:
- Larson clinches with eight stage points
- Larson clinches by finishing 28th or better without any stage points
- ·Larson clinches by finishing third or better in the first stage
- Bell and Hamlin both must win to score enough points to have a chance to overtake Larson
- Bell must score at least 13 stage points to remain in contention
(Bell must finish eighth or better in the first stage)
- Hamlin must score at least 16 stage points to stay in contention
(Hamlin must finish fifth or better in the first stage)
- Larson has five stage wins on 1.5-mile tracks this season (series most)
- Hamlin has earned the most points on 1.5-mile tracks this year (383) over Chase Briscoe (367), Larson (332), Tyler Reddick (306), and Christopher Bell (299)
Five drivers are still mathematically in contention for the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championship: Justin Allgaier, Jesse Love (the reigning champion), Corey Day, Carson Kvapil, and Sheldon Creed. It would be a second title for Allgaier or Love.
Allgaier leads Love by 22 points, Day by 23 points, Kvapil by 31 points, and Creed by 42 points.
Here are the clinch scenarios:
- Allgaier clinches with 54 points
- Love clinches with 76 points
- Day clinches with 76 points
- Kvapil and Creed need help
The Craftsman Truck Series title is down to two drivers: Kaden Honeycutt and Layne Riggs. The duo has been the class of the field all year. Honeycutt leads Riggs by 20 points.
The clinch scenarios:
- Honeycutt wins the championship by scoring 57 or more points
- Riggs wins the championship by scoring 75 points
NASCAR will first crown the Truck Series champion on Friday night to start the weekend. It is the first time since 2019 that the champions will be crowned in South Florida.
Kelly Crandall
Kelly has been on the NASCAR beat full-time since 2013, and joined RACER as chief NASCAR writer in 2017. Her work has also appeared in NASCAR.com, the NASCAR Illustrated magazine, and NBC Sports. A corporate communications graduate from Central Penn College, Crandall is a two-time George Cunningham Writer of the Year recipient from the National Motorsports Press Association.
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