Verstappen’s October treats come too late to trick Antonelli

“It would be very scary. It would be very, very scary…” Kimi Antonelli knows just how different he could be feeling right now if Red Bull had started the season more strongly.

A 102-point lead over George Russell has the Italian within touching distance of a first drivers’ championship, one that he could mathematically secure with a victory next time out at Austin’s Circuit of The Americas. Yet his advantage over Max Verstappen is the one that could prove to be the one to measure the final standings in.

That’s because Verstappen has now taken 94 out of a possible 108 points over the last four race weekends, outscoring Antonelli by 21 points in the process. And that’s an Antonelli who has a win and two further podiums in that time.

I’m going into true revisionist mode, but Verstappen has four retirements to Antonelli’s two this season, and two of those – in Monaco when he was starting second but couldn’t get off the line, and at Silverstone where a rear wing issue took him out of third place in the late going – cost him 33 points.

Those alone would leave him 86 adrift of Antonelli and second in the standings, but the reality is it’s Red Bull’s slow start that has proven particularly costly at this point. In the first four races, Verstappen managed just 26 points while Antonelli scored 100. That 84-point buffer has since been extended to 119 over the following 13 races, but the momentum is clearly with a resurgent Red Bull.

With the memory of last season’s dramatic comeback clear in many minds, add in Mercedes’ struggles with its recent upgrade package and Antonelli could well have been under a modicum of pressure. Hence his “very scary” admission.

Another crushing win from the pole has Verstappen in a much better frame of mind than earlier in the season, but Antonelli keeps doing what he needs to do. Sam Bagnall/Sutton via Getty Images

“Very different tracks that we have gone well at now,” Verstappen said after winning in Singapore for the first time “That’s of course always nice to see. I really think that our car has taken a really nice step forward. But at the end of the day, it’s just been more drivable and more predictable.

“That’s what I wanted and needed from the car to find that last step to fight up front. And I hope that we can carry that momentum forward.

“We don’t really have anything to win in the championship, right? I think Kimi is miles ahead. For me personally, I don’t care if I’m second, third or fourth. It doesn’t do anything. But I just want to have fun till the end, try to go for [every] success.”

Red Bull has made steady progress through this season, but you’d have been hard-pressed to find someone who identified Verstappen as being set for such a run leaving Madrid. And that’s despite his form of a podium in every race he’s finished since the end of June. The four-time world champion points to a car he feels able to manipulate more since the start of the just-completed tripleheader of races on consecutive weekends as central to him unlocking that race-winning potential.

“I think the car definitely felt a lot nicer from Baku onwards. It’s just been a lot more balanced,” he said. “And then naturally, of course, when you can compete a bit further up front without having too many issues with the car compared to the beginning of the year, where it was actually sometimes a bit scary to drive, that makes it a lot nicer.

“The way that we turned that around and actually the big progress that we have made this year, that makes it of course a lot nicer. And when you can add a few wins as well, it’s just nice. We’re not in a championship fight, and that’s why I think till the end, we will just try to have a good time and try to add more podiums and hopefully a few wins.”

It is too little too late for Red Bull and Verstappen, but it should only be seen in the context of a hugely impressive development rate and power unit offering, combining to bring the team back into race-winning contention. Antonelli also points to Mercedes’ own shortcomings with its latest upgrade as hurting its ability to fight for wins in Malaysia and Singapore, and such a blip is far from problematic given the championship context.

“[The results are due] probably mostly us not extracting the maximum out of the new package,” Antonelli said after coming home third in Singapore. “I mean, of course Red Bull has done an incredible step forward, but as well, Max has probably been more comfortable with the car and just extracting more out of it. So, it’s a combination of things. But for sure they’ve done a good step forward.

“On our side, we're just trying to understand how to extract more potential out of it because we do see the gains, we do see what it could bring. It’s just that the window is very small at the moment where the car operates and is very sensitive to the way you drive it, the way you take a corner, the way you brake. So it reacts very differently.

“So hopefully now in Austin, we have three free practices, so we can be very open-minded with setup and hopefully we can find a way and we can use the full potential of the package and finally see the gains.

“But I think the team did an incredible job this weekend on just putting the car in a better place and allowing me to get the confidence. And now it’s a starting point to keep working and keep extracting the potential.”

He's been having to work harder of late, but Antonelli continues to maximize the results available, as in Singapore where he swept past Norris and Hamilton for another podium. Alastair Staley/Getty Images

The response from the Mercedes camp might have been different if Verstappen was within any sort of striking range, but Toto Wolff’s team has earned its cushion and bought itself time to figure out its latest package. Yet the potential that Antonelli speaks of will have to be enough to close what was a 25-second deficit to Verstappen at the flag in Singapore.

A different track in COTA will provide a different test, and McLaren has already promised further updates in a season that has seen huge swings in form due to the development race, but Red Bull has shown strong form across a variety of layouts. And while Antonelli need not fear Verstappen in the way McLaren had to 12 months’ ago, this year’s turnaround is likely to have far greater repercussions for the following season.

"That’s what we’ll try [to win every race],” Verstappen added. “In the coming races, maybe some other teams will bring some final upgrades for the season. So we have to wait and see how they will work for them. But it’s been an incredible tripleheader for us, big turnaround for the team. And I hope that every single weekend we could try to just have a good time, try to fight for that win.

“That’s the only thing that we can do also heading into next year, to learn more about the car and have some fun out there.”

Verstappen is clearly having a lot more fun as the season enters its final quarter, but he’s not going to be able to spoil Antonelli’s fun from here. Not in 2026, at least.