Don’t stop believin’: Saturday at Milwaukee will make or break Kirkwood’s IndyCar title journey

So you’re saying there’s a chance…

The battle for the IndyCar Series title appeared to be all but over as polesitter and runaway championship leader Alex Palou led the field to the green flag last weekend at the Freedom 250 Washington, D.C. Grand Prix. But thanks to Palou’s epic day to forget, IndyCar fans have a reason to tune in or turn up to the Milwaukee Mile this weekend for the doubleheader and see if Kyle Kirkwood can author another miracle to keep his slim championship hopes alive.

“All I can say is we have a better chance now than we did before last weekend,” Kirkwood told RACER.

The season has three races left to run, and in the countdown to the finale, Saturday’s Snap-On 250 is the only race that matters in the title hunt. It’s strictly a matter of math.

Kirkwood’s peerless drive in D.C. prevented Alex Palou from moving the championship out of reach, and he’ll need to do it again with another lights-out performance – and some help from Palou – in Race 1 to keep the coronation at bay.

IndyCar awards a maximum of 54 points per race with 50 to win, one point for pole, one for leading a lap, and two for leading the most laps. Palou’s lead over Kirkwood is significant at 91 points – nearly two full races’ worth – entering Saturday’s 250-lap race, and Kirkwood has a maximum of 162 points (three races x 54) to possibly acquire for the rest of the season.

Rather than dive into all of the championship-clinching scenarios, it’s easier to just say the Andretti Global driver must win or finish second on Saturday and have his Chip Ganassi Racing rival pull another D.C. and crash out of the race early or suffer some other problem that drops him to the bottom of the field.

With his big win last weekend and Palou’s remarkable adversity, Kirkwood carved 41 points out of Palou’s championship lead, and that’s precisely what he must do on Saturday in Milwaukee to keep the title within reach.

The separation between the two, with Kirkwood receiving first-place points and Palou mired out of sight in 20th, is where the giant leap took place. For Kirkwood, creating anything other than another giant separation in the final results on Saturday…and the lights go from dim to completely dark.

Cut the lead down to something in the 50-60 point range after Race 1, which would involve Palou assisting in some way with a terrible finish, then carve it down to half of that in Race 2 with more Palou-centric issues, and then it’s onto Laguna Seca for a straight championship fight between the Honda-powered drivers. That’s the fantasy scenario, at least, where Kirkwood prevents Palou from receiving his fifth IndyCar crown while the series is in Wisconsin.

As the Freedom 250 proved, there’s a reason to hold out hope for the unexpected, but history suggests Palou will rebound from his worst performance of the year with something that’s more expected while at Milwaukee.

“Realistically, we can't control what Palau does,” Kirkwood said. “And historically, when he makes a mistake, he comes back 10 times stronger. So we have to expect the best from him always, but I don't want to hope for the worst for him. But if circumstances happen, we just need to be in the right position to capitalize.

“Quite honestly, we're in the position now where we're just focusing on winning races, and I feel like that's his been his focus the last four years – just winning races, and if you win those races, you win the championship. So we're trying to take a page out of his book a little bit in that sense.”

Palou started at the front last year at Milwaukee and a similar run this year can basically settle things. Michael Levitt/Lumen via Getty Images

Palou and the No. 10 Ganassi team were on pole last year and finished second while Kirkwood finished 12th, and although the Andretti team has made strides with its short oval setups, there’s no reason to believe Palou will be uncompetitive in either race this weekend.

After Saturday, the maximum points drops down to 108 with the two races remaining on the schedule, and if Palou completes the first Milwaukee race with anything close to the 91-point lead he currently owns, there’s almost nothing Kirkwood can do to stay in the fight.

After Sunday’s 250-lap Milwaukee race, there’s only 54 points left to get in Monterey, and provided Palou’s sitting on 50ish points or so when the checkered flag waves on Race 2 this weekend, the championship will be settled at The Mile.

This is why Saturday is a make-or-break affair for Kirkwood, who’s the only driver with a remote chance of catching Palou.

Kirkwood also can’t afford to have others win on Saturday and steal the best points-paying finishing positions; taking fourth while Palou crosses the line in 18th, for example, barely moves the needle with a gain of 20 points and an adjusted lead of 71 points.

Kirkwood and the No. 27 crew are in desperate need of a home run on Saturday and all Palou needs to do is finish in his general vicinity to end any chance of a championship upset from taking place.

We’re 24 hours away from something meaningful happening in Milwaukee, be it a miracle for Kirkwood or the potential crowning of a five-time champ.