Crunch time for some of NASCAR’s remaining Chase hopefuls. But for others, the door’s already shut

It’s time to have a serious conversation about the NASCAR drivers and teams who might not make the Chase.

With the checkered flag on Sunday at Pocono Raceway, there are 10 races left in the regular season. On one hand, that means there is plenty of racing left to go. On the other, time is running out for teams who are struggling and don’t have the win-and-in scenario to fall back on.

Alex Bowman, 32nd, and Josh Berry, 30th, are done.

Bowman missed four races due to vertigo that put the Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 team on its back foot, and it’s clear they are not good enough to climb out of the hole. In the 12 races that Bowman has been behind the wheel, they have two top-10 finishes and only five finishes inside the top 20.

Berry and Wood Brothers Racing haven’t been much better. He also has two top-10 finishes (but has run all 16 races) and four top-20 finishes. It has been nothing short of disappointing for all involved to see how far they have fallen over the last year. Such a promising start to 2025, with a victory and postseason berth, gave way to a rocky second half of the season that has carried over into a new season. Berry has already confirmed that he and the team will part ways at the end of the year.

Ross Chastain, 23rd, should be on the verge of being counted out. Trackhouse Racing is not what it was a mere three years ago. Chastain (main image) finished second and ninth in the championship standings with four wins between 2023 and 2024. Since then, they have fallen further and further into irrelevancy as the rest of the garage has gotten better and faster, and Trackhouse Racing hasn’t evolved as quickly.

The deficit Chastain faces to the final spot on the Chase grid is 61 points. But it might as well be 600 points. It feels insurmountable when the team is so inconsistent. Look at his three top-10 finishes: Atlanta in February, Talladega in April, and Pocono this past Sunday.

From there, we see three drivers who are expected to be in the Chase. Ryan Preece is 19th, Joey Logano is 18th, and Brad Keselowski is 17th. All of them are within reach of the postseason, and should go down to the wire fighting for a spot.

Except all three have been less than inspiring in recent weeks and need the tides to turn quickly. Preece and his RFK Racing team, for example, sat as high as 12th on the grid only a month ago.

Logano and his experienced, battle-tested Team Penske group refuse to hear the bell. Sure, they are on the outside looking in, but there is always the thought, for them at least, that the switch will flip. Everyone else is still waiting to see it. The hot-and-cold theme has been very real this year for the three-time champions. Not since 2017 has Logano been excluded from the postseason field.

History is on Logano's side when it comes to the question of making the postseason, but he's running out of weekends to seal the deal. Sean Gardner/Getty Images

And then there is Keselowski. In the last three weeks, by finishing outside the top 30, Keselowski has gone from ninth in the standings to 17th. But like his teammate, Preece, this is a capable driver and team that is capable of turning things around.

The bleeding has to stop first. But for some drivers, it might only get worse over the next two weeks.

San Diego and Sonoma are ready to throw a wrench into everyone’s seasons. The back-to-back street/road courses will test patience and performance, and any driver who does not typically do well on road courses has to be nervous about what’s ahead.

In the first year of the reintroduced Chase, it is very clear that winning matters more than it ever has, with additional points, and bad days hurt. Exactly how it should be, but a tough lesson for some. Tyler Reddick, after all, hasn’t even had terrible days, but Denny Hamlin has chopped over 100 points off his lead.

Just win, baby. But sorry, it’s not going to solve everything because it’s not your automatic ticket into the Chase. You still have to show up for work in the rest of the races.

The provisional Chase field is another interesting discussion. There are five drivers sitting in Chase spots at this time who did not make the postseason a year ago: Ty Gibbs in fifth, Chris Buescher in seventh, Daniel Suarez in eighth, Carson Hocevar in ninth, and Erik Jones in 15th.

Jones, of course, is the most vulnerable right now. However, give Legacy Motor Club its due, because Jones and the No. 43 team have been on a heater in recent weeks. If they can minimize the damage in the next two weeks on the road course, they might have a legitimate shot of battling for a Chase spot going down the stretch. It would be the first time Legacy puts a car into the postseason.

Spire Motorsports, meanwhile, has two drivers sitting inside the top 10 in points. A job well done by that organization. They are solid and steady, and just need to stay the course, and it’s going to be a career year for them.

Over the next 10 weeks, there are two road courses and two drafting styling racetracks. A lot can and will happen. But eyes should already be on the Chase grid, because there are main players in the series who are living on the edge.