Thoughts from the first three races of the IndyCar season

A raging IndyCar season with four races in five weekends will reach its end on Sunday at the Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix at Barber Motorsports Park. The hectic run has produced a wide-open championship battle with different winners from different teams at every stop; three unique pole winners, setters of fastest laps, and leaders of the most laps have also been recorded as no driver has won from pole or gone on the win after posting the quickest race lap. 

Excellence, spread throughout the main title contenders, has been the story so far in 2026, and if we’re lucky, it will remain that way through the final race.

Andretti looked strong in Arlington with Kyle Kirkwood's victory, but Barber will be a real test of its powers. Chris Jones/IMS photo

It ain’t hard to tell

More than St. Petersburg, Phoenix, or Arlington, this weekend’s race at Barber will tell us everything we need to know about Andretti Global’s state of readiness to vie for the championship. 

It’s been a force on street courses for many years, which was only reaffirmed at St. Pete and Arlington, and needed to make big gains on short ovals, which it clearly did at Phoenix. But one-third of the calendar is held on permanent road courses, and that’s been the domain of Alex Palou and Scott Dixon at Chip Ganassi Racing. And Team Penske and Arrow McLaren. 

What about Andretti Global? Its last road course win was produced at IMS on July 30, 2022, and while the team has generated some good runs at Barber in recent years, all of their finishes have been at the wrong end of the top 10. Barber, specifically, has counted Palou, McLaren’s Pato O’Ward, and Penske’s Scott McLaughlin as its only winners since 2021 with Palou and McLaughlin owning two wins apiece over the last five events. 

It makes for the perfect referendum on Andretti’s competitive progress where Barber serves as another big ‘are they real?’ race for Andretti. 

On aggregate, championship leader Kyle Kirkwood (126 points), P8 Marcus Ericsson (77), and P11 Will Power (59) have shown serious pace for the team, and if they can produce similar gains at Barber, the rest of the field could be in a world of hurt. For Kirkwood, who owns a career best Barber result of P10 and has never stood on an IndyCar road course podium, which is wild to ponder, a top three finish would go a long way to show he’s ready to take on Palou in a head-to-head fight.

And if Andretti is slightly off and the Ganassis and Penskes and McLarens have maintained their road course edge, the guessing game of who’ll win each race will continue.

Marcus Ericsson is enjoying form reminiscent of his Ganassi days. Paul Hurley/IMS photo

Made you look

For the first time since he left Chip Ganassi Racing at the end of 2023, Ericsson has looked capable of winning more IndyCar races, and that’s a reason for the Swede to celebrate. 

If there’s been an oddity so far, it was Ericsson’s relative absence from the short oval in Phoenix. He’s among the best on ovals of any size, and yet it was Kirkwood and Power who were on form while Ericsson was adrift in P17. It’s more of an anomaly than a concern for the 35-year-old who thrives on ovals.

The strongest evidence of a rejuvenated Ericsson in the No. 28 Honda has been on the two street courses in qualifying where extreme confidence is required to flirt with the walls during the one or two peak laps offered by new Firestone tires. 

The seven-year IndyCar veteran was rapid in the first two street course qualifying sessions of 2025, so what we’re seeing in 2026 isn’t a massive year-to-year change for Ericsson. But trading last season’s P7 start at St. Pete for P2 and P5 at Long Beach (which fell second on the 2025 calendar) for P1 at Arlington signals something new for him at Andretti. 

In line with the note about Andretti needing to show it has the goods to win on road courses, Ericsson has a miniature reckoning of his own this weekend at Barber where his best finish of P7 dates back to 2019. He’s yet to place better than P18 at the Alabama circuit with Andretti, which needs to change if he’s going to hold onto P8 in the championship or improve prior to Long Beach in mid-April. 

Alex Palou has been much less dominant so far compared to last year, depite winning the season opener (pictured). Joe Skibinski/IMS photo

Come get me

Beyond the three different winners to start the season, the other notable change from 2025 is found in the championship standings. 

Palou and the No. 10 Ganassi Honda were all but unstoppable after three races last year and departed Long Beach with 142 points to lead Kirkwood by 34 points, Arrow McLaren’s Christian Lundgaard by 46, Meyer Shank Racing’s Felix Rosenqvist by 54, Ganassi teammate Scott Dixon by 56, and in P6, Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward was a vast 62 points shy of Palou.

Jump to 2026 and Kirkwood’s 126 points are significant, but the gap to Palou in second is a more modest 26 points. Granted, it’s a smaller sum than the 34 points Kirkwood trailed Palou last year, but it still represents almost half a race’s worth of maximum points the Andretti driver has accrued over his closest rival. 

In third, it’s a tie between Penske’s Josef Newgarden and O’Ward at 33 points behind Kirkwood, which is a welcome improvement for both. Newgarden gets the nod for third with a better top finish than O’Ward, and was 10th after three races in 2025 and nearly 100 points back from Palou. From 2025, O’Ward has effectively halved his deficit in points and his place in the championship.

Penske’s Scott McLaughlin is also enjoying a better start to the season in P5, 41 points down to Kirkwood; he was a distant P8 a year ago. He’s shadowed by new Penske teammate David Malukas in P6, 42 points back from the leader. He’s also the biggest mover of the bunch after holding P18 at this point in 2025.

Last year’s top six after three were separated by 62 points, and that’s been tightened to 42 points in 2026. Yes, it’s still early in the year, but nobody looks unbeatable or uncatchable like Palou did 12 months ago, and that’s a gift to everyone except the Spaniard.

Among the other year-to-year lookbacks, Rosenqvist has fallen from P4 to P14 and needs 79 points to draw even with Kirkwood. Said another way, the scrappy Swede needs 1.5 races of maximum points to erase the deficit after three races. Rosenqvist’s teammate Marcus Armstrong was P14 last year, 92 points down to Palou, and arrives at Barber in P9, 56 points back to Kirkwood.

Lundgaard, in P7, needs 46 points to catch Kirkwood. Last year, he was P3 and 46 points shy of Palou. It’s the same gap to address, but within a much more competitive front-running field to manage.  

Another points comparison of interest before Barber is found with rookies. In 2025, PREMA Racing’s Robert Shwartzman was P22, 112 points behind Palou. This year, Dale Coyne Racing’s Dennis Hauger holds P13 and is separated to P1 by 76 points.  

Marcus Armstrong is one to watch. Joe Skibinski/IMS photo

Shine together

Don’t sleep on what Armstrong’s achieving with Meyer Shank. The New Zealander showed serious glimpses of potential at Ganassi during his first two seasons, leveled up with MSR last season to take P8 in the championship behind Rosenqvist in P6, and so far, he’s become the team’s most consistent performer in 2026. 

In direct comparisons to the three races that opened the 2025 championship, Armstrong has improved his finishing positions in all three 2026 events, vaulting 19 combined spots across St. Pete, Phoenix, and Arlington. 

Rosenqvist was on the cusp of a big finish at Arlington until his P6 at the checkered flag was turned into a P20 by IndyCar for passing Malukas before the restart line, so it’s not as if he can’t or won’t reassert himself as MSR’s best driver. But there is a real question as to which driver will lead MSR on any given weekend, and that’s a new twist for Armstrong. 

For those who love to monitor in-house duels, MSR has a fun one on its hands with Rosenqvist and Armstrong as both compete for intra-squad supremacy and new contracts, be it with MSR or possibly a bigger team in 2027.

Palou is chasing a third win at Barber – and a second-straight after triumphing there last year (pictured). Joe Skibinski/IMS photo

Represent

There are more ‘are they real?’ benchmarks to follow at Barber, starting with Palou. 

His No. 10 Honda team was in a class of its own at St. Pete, didn’t last long enough at Phoenix to give an account of what they did or didn’t have, and was a clear second-best to Kirkwood and Andretti at Arlington. Barber represents a great indicator of where the No. 10 car and the team as a whole stand against their main rivals, and will tell us whether the road courses—where Palou destroyed everybody last year with five wins—continue to serve as an advantage for Ganassi, or if its pursuers have newfound answers to negate Palou’s super power.

And for those who don’t recall what he did at Barber in 2025, Palou took pole, led 81 of 90 laps, and mollywhopped the entire field on the way to a demoralizing 16-second victory. It was the race that indicated the other teams had a long season of beatings to endure, and that’s precisely what Kirkwood hopes to show on Sunday and Palou hopes to prevent.

Penske hasn’t been a road racing powerhouse like Ganassi, but it did get a win at Portland last season with Power, took three in 2024 including Barber with Scott McLaughlin, and got one with the New Zealander the year prior at Barber. Owing to how strong Penske started the year, Barber will give us another key data point to track as all three of its drivers have been impressive in 2026.

Felix Rosenqvist is stronger than his season so far suggests. James Black/IMS photo

It’s time

There’s a long list of drivers looking to the first road course race as a venue to change their fortunes.

Rosenqvist leads the list among expected championship contenders; he’s far better than P14 suggests, but he’s also made a few too many unforced errors to limit his results. A clean and fast weekend would do wonders for the 34-year-old. 

Next, it’s Ganassi’s Scott Dixon, who sits P12 in the standings as a result of the wheel falling off at St. Pete. He’s overcome bad qualifying runs at the last two races to place P7 at Phoenix and P8 at Arlington; but it’s hard to ignore how difficult Dixon’s season has been due to where the No. 9 Honda has started. 

Rolling off from P16 at St. Pete, P15 at Phoenix, and P20 at Arlington has added a degree of difficulty to Dixon’s year that can’t be ignored. He’s currently 67 points off of Kirkwood and just nine points ahead of rookie Dennis Hauger. 

As a team, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is desperate for a clean and fast weekend of its own for all three drivers. Graham Rahal is its best in P16, albeit 80 points arrears from Kirkwood, and then it’s Louis Foster in P19, 85 points down to the leader. The Briton impressed with a P9 start at St. Pete, but since then, it’s mostly been downhill as his sophomore season has been problematic, at best.  

RLL rookie Mick Schumacher didn’t expect to take down IndyCar’s front-running drivers in the first month of the season, but he also didn’t anticipate rocking up to Barber with his name listed P25 and last in the championship (25). Having just celebrated his 27th birthday, a fresh start to his rookie campaign this weekend with a result that mirrors his talent would be an exceptional gift.

Despite a strong first race, it's been a season to forget for Romain Grojsejean so far. Joe Skibinski/IMS photo

Ether

No driver has fallen farther down the standings since the opening race than Romain Grosjean. 

He was a noteworthy P8 to reopen his account with Dale Coyne Racing, couldn’t participate at Phoenix when the clutch line failed on the starting grid, was enduring a miserable weekend in Arlington and running P20 on the race-ending restart, and then things got worse when he was clobbered from behind by Nolan Siegel, leaving the No. 18 Honda driver P23. 

Combined with the last-place P25 from Phoenix, Grosjean has dropped to P21 in the championship (36). Add the 39-year-old to the stockpile of drivers dreaming for positive ends to their Barber visits.

If anyone placed a heavy bet on the trifecta of Sting Ray Robb finishing P21 at St. Pete, P21 at Phoenix, and P21 at Arlington…you’re amazing…and crazy…and now incredibly wealthy. Somehow, the Idahoan’s managed to delivere three straight runs to P21, and those are three finishes, not three DNFs. The driver of the No. 77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevy holds P23 in the standings (27) as a result.

Behind Robb is Siegel as the Arrow McLaren driver’s bid to retain his No. 6 Chevy seat has been nothing short of a nightmare. Runs to P20, P20, and the race-ending hit in Texas which deposited the Californian in P24 has added up to sitting P24 in the championship (26). 

To understand how badly things have gone for Robb, Siegel, and Schumacher, all of their points combined (78) would only be good enough for P8 in the standings.

Arlington was the third-straight race to register 1 million viewers on FOX. Joe Skibinski/IMS photo

I gave you power

Let’s close on a positive—or at least the potential of a positive—with IndyCar on FOX’s stellar start to the season. Three straight races with more than 1 million viewers has been a powerful and statement-making improvement, and with a weekend off between Arlington and Barber, the upcoming Nielsen number for the 90-lap contest that starts at 1pm ET on Sunday will answer whether the string of viewership momentum has been broken by the pause in action or if IndyCar is on a sustained lift.

Last year’s Barber race was a snoozer, thanks to Palou’s total domination, but managed to deliver an average audience of 914,000. IndyCar contends with the NCAA’s March Madness Men’s basketball on Sunday, which will offer more insights into the series’ ability to draw and keep viewers in 2026. Will IndyCar go four-in-a-row with million-plus TV numbers?