Five questions ahead of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs

It’s finally time to race for a NASCAR Cup Series championship.

A long regular season ended on Saturday night with Ryan Blaney in victory lane, which in the end, was of no surprise. Blaney and his team have not only been one of the best on the season, but he’s become a superspeedway ace through the years. Blaney slammed the door on the last-minute hopes of drivers trying to make the postseason, and for drivers who were in that position, they likely weren’t going to be championship contenders anyway.

NASCAR has an interesting postseason field, with 13 of the drivers coming from inside the top 15 in the point standings. The other three drivers who earned a postseason berth came from 21st, 25th, and 26th.

Josh Berry and Shane van Gisbergen are making their first appearances in the playoffs. Then there are plenty of the usual suspects, with most of the field coming from the Hendrick Motorsports (four), Team Penske (three) and Joe Gibbs Racing (three) camps. 23XI Racing and Trackhouse Racing have a pair of drivers championship eligible while Richard Childress Racing and Wood Brothers Racing have one each. Although the latter does have deep ties to Penske.

There is a lot of racing to come and plenty of storylines that will play out. But here are some things to think about going into the 2025 edition of the playoffs.

Will regular-season champion William Byron seal the deal?

Byron and the Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 team claimed the regular season championship for the first time this season. Byron did not lead the series in victories, but his consistency put him atop the point standings for an incredible 21 of 26 weeks, and he leads the series in stage points (247 to the 229 of Ryan Blaney).

The postseason begins with Byron tied with teammate Kyle Larson at 32 playoff points. That is the most playoff points Byron has earned since 2023, when he entered the postseason with 36 additional points as the No. 1 seed. And that season, Byron made his first appearance in the Championship 4. He made a repeat appearance in 2024 and now seeks his third straight title opportunity.

Since being paired with crew chief Rudy Fugle in 2021, Byron has been one of the most successful drivers in the series. Byron has won 14 races with Fugle and in each season together, finished better in the point standings than the year before. If that trend were to continue, after Byron finished second to Blaney in 2024, that means Byron is the champion in 10 weeks.

It wouldn’t be surprising. Byron and Fugle’s team are well rounded, and don’t have many weaknesses. Given how the regular season played out, Byron should be expected to again make a Championship 4 appearance, and from there, it’s about finding a way to be the best driver and team on that given Sunday.

Is this finally the year for Denny Hamlin?

Hamlin and the No. 11 team have been here and done this many times before, but with nothing to show for it at the end of the season. The Cup Series championship is the only thing Hamlin has not accomplished. He knows it. The paddock knows it. And the fans certainly know it, and hold it against him as a criticism.

Darlington Raceway marks the start of Hamlin making his 19th postseason appearance, the most of any driver. He is tied with Joey Logano for the most Round of 8 appearances (nine) and has made the Championship 4, the title race, on four occasions. But he hasn’t been included in the latter since 2021.

There is nothing that stands out from this season as a reason why Hamlin will or will not win the championship. In the era of playoff racing, the regular season is not always an indication of who is going to make the championship race, nor who is going to prevail on that single day. But Hamlin and his team were one of the best during the regular season with four victories, and arguably fast race cars on all types of racetracks. 

Now, it comes down to execution from round to round. And if Hamlin is around for the final round at Phoenix Raceway, seeing if both performance and racing luck finally swing his way.

Hamlin has been down this road many times before. Will this be the year he gets a different ending to the story? Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Will SVG ADV?

Shane van Gisbergen is not expected to make it through the first round of the postseason. Or at least, not many will push him through their brackets because the knock against van Gisbergen and his Trackhouse Racing team is that they only have one arrow in the quiver, which is road and street courses. The next road course is not until the second round.

But it would be premature to write off van Gisbergen so easily. The first round is going to be an uphill battle because for van Gisbergen, a lot of weekends on ovals are. However, he is starting the postseason with 22 playoff points as insurance, whereas some of his competitors don’t have double digit playoff points. It means that the door is open for him to survive and advance if others stub their toes.

Plus, the postseason kicks off at Darlington Raceway. First, that means others are likely to have bad days at the tough old racetrack. Second, by his own admission, it’s van Gisbergen’s favorite racetrack, and he’s got a notebook from two previous races to help him improve the third time around.

Which teams are going to beat themselves?

It happens every year. Alex Bowman and Hendrick Motorsports are one of the most recent examples, getting disqualified after the Charlotte Roval last year when they crossed the finish line in position to advance into the Round of 8. Bowman had been putting together a solid postseason to that point, and was left wondering what could have been if he made it into the third round.

Joey Logano was eliminated after the first round in 2023. A year after winning his second championship. Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick, three of the biggest names in the sport, were all eliminated after the first round in 2022.

Whether it’s the first round or later in the postseason, no driver and team is safe. Although having playoff points to fall back on is nice, they also aren’t a guarantee. Harvick found that out in 2020 when he dominated the series for nine wins and failed to make the title race.

Darlington Raceway brings the pressure from the beginning as the opening round begins with one of the sport’s toughest races, the Southern 500. Bristol Motor Speedway, a short track, is the elimination race. The second round ends at the Charlotte Roval, which has had its share of memorable moments over the years. And Talladega Superspeedway is waiting in the third round.

The elimination era began in 2014 and even after all these years, no two postseasons have looked the same. So, be prepared for some surprises again along the way and some playing the ultimate survive and advance game.

Will it again be Team Penske/Hendrick Motorsports, or someone new?

NASCAR has crowned five champions since moving its finale to Phoenix Raceway in 2020. Has anyone picked up on the trend that’s developed since then? 

It’s a simple one: Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske have a stranglehold on the place. Hendrick and Penske are the only two organizations to have won the championship over the last five years, with four different drivers. Chase Elliott (2020) and Kyle Larson (2021) did it for Hendrick. Joey Logano (2022, ’24) and Ryan Blaney (2023) did so for Penske.

But it goes further than just who prevailed at the end of the day. Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske have dominated appearances in the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, and routinely are the fastest during the race. 

In the first season, 2020, they combined for three of the four drivers in the title race. It was two of the four drivers in 2021 and ’22. It was also three of the four championship drivers in 2023 and ’24.

There is no reason to believe it’ll change this year. Fortunately for their competition, however, the championship race rotates back to south Florida next year.