Reaching the Round of 12: Driver scenarios

Image by Kinrade/LAT

Reaching the Round of 12: Driver scenarios

NASCAR

Reaching the Round of 12: Driver scenarios

With the drop of the green flag Sunday afternoon at Charlotte, four drivers will be locked into the Round of 12.

Kevin Harvick will be that fourth driver as he joins Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. as drivers whose spots are safe just by starting the inaugural Charlotte road course race. But the first elimination race of the playoffs still has plenty to decide.

Twelve drivers will fight for eight spots, with Ryan Blaney the man on the bubble by four points over Clint Bowyer.

A look at the playoff grid:
Kyle Busch 2125 points (clinched with win)
Brad Keselowski 2111 points (clinched with win)
Martin Truex Jr. 2141 points (clinched on points)
Kevin Harvick +57 on cutoff
Joey Logano +25 on cutoff
Aric Almirola +23 on cutoff
Kyle Larson +17 on cutoff
Kurt Busch +15 on cutoff
Chase Elliott +10 on cutoff
Austin Dillon +10 on cutoff
Alex Bowman +15 on cutoff
Ryan Blaney +4 on the cutoff
Clint Bowyer -4 below cutoff
Jimmie Johnson -6 below cutoff
Erik Jones -21 below cutoff
Denny Hamlin -29 below cutoff

Here are the clinching scenarios for the Bank of America Roval 400:
Kevin Harvick – Harvick will clinch by starting Sunday’s race.

Joey Logano – If there is a new winner, Logano will clinch with 33 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon or Alex Bowman), Logano would clinch with 30 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Logano would clinch with 31 points.

Aric Almirola – If there is a new winner, Almirola would clinch with 35 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon or Alex Bowman), he would clinch on points with 32 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Almirola would clinch with 33 points.

Kyle Larson – If there is a new winner, Larson would clinch on points with 40 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon or Alex Bowman), Larson would clinch with 37 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Larson would clinch with 38 points.

Kurt Busch – If there is a new winner, Busch would clinch on points with 43 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon or Alex Bowman), Busch would clinch with 40 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Larson would clinch with 41 points.

Chase Elliott – If there is a new winner, Elliott would clinch with 48 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon or Alex Bowman), Elliott would clinch on points with 45 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Elliott would clinch with 46 points.

Austin Dillon – If there is a new winner, Dillon would clinch with 48 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott or Alex Bowman), Dillon would clinch with 45 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Dillon would clinch with 46 points.

Alex Bowman – If there is a new winner, Bowman would clinch with 53 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott or Austin Dillon), Bowman would clinch on points with 50 points. If Ryan Blaney wins, Bowman would clinch with 51 points.

Ryan Blaney – If there is a new winner, Blaney would clinch with 54 points. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott or Austin Dillon), Blaney would clinch with 51 points. If Alex Bowman wins, Blaney would clinch with 52 points.

Clint Bowyer – If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott or Austin Dillon), Bowyer would clinch with 55 points. With a win, Bowyer would clinch a next-round spot. Bowyer could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Jimmie Johnson – With a win, Johnson would clinch a next-round spot. Johnson could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Erik Jones – With a win, Jones would clinch a next-round spot. Jones could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Denny Hamlin – With a win, Hamlin would clinch a next round spot. Hamlin could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

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