
NASCAR: Buescher victory changes Chase dynamic
Chris Buescher's weather-aided upset victory has created a fascinating ripple effect in the battle to make the Chase for the Championship.
results of the Pennsylvania 400
on Monday have created two separate scenarios to follow over the final five races of the Sprint Cup regular season – one in which Buescher cracks the top 30 and makes the playoffs and one in which he doesn't.In fact, it's a statistical coin flip which one actually happens.
With his triumph, Buescher gained 35 points on the top 30 in the championship standings, which is where he needs to be after the race at Richmond next month to qualify for the Round of 16. But he's chasing David Ragan for that position with the veteran posting nearly a two-position-better average finish than Buescher (27.6 to 29.2) entering the weekend.
Buescher is going to have to outpoint Ragan over the next five races or capitalize on some misfortune, which could befall either of them with races at Watkins Glen, Bristol and Darlington on the horizon. But this isn't just about Buescher. His inclusion in the Chase Grid comes with the caveat of knocking a current non-winner out of the bracket.
For example, this is what the playoff bubble currently looks like with five races remaining.
13. Ryan Newman +49
14. Chase Elliott +45
15. Jamie McMurray +29
16. Kyle Larson +20
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17. Kasey Kahne -20
18. Trevor Bayne -28
19. Ryan Blaney -28
20. Ricky Stenhouse -36
However, if you assume that Buescher will make the grid, providing one less spot for a current non-winner, it leaves Kyle Larson out of luck:
12. Ryan Newman +29
14. Chase Elliott +25
15. Jamie McMurray +9
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16. Kyle Larson -9
17. Kasey Kahne -29
18. Trevor Bayne -37
19. Ryan Blaney -37
Making matters even more complicated is that AJ Allmendinger has previously used the race at Watkins Glen to win and advance to the Chase back in 2014. He's currently 21st in the standings with a win-at-all-costs mentality over the next five races. And then there's Dale Earnhardt Jr., who missed his third race in a row due to concussion-like symptoms.
Earnhardt is now 20th in points and 47 points out of a playoff spot, meaning he's probably going to need a victory (and a NASCAR waiver) to make the Chase should he return before the end of the regular season.
So if nothing else, the current NASCAR championship format has created a plethora of storylines to follow over the next five races, and it all started with Buescher's unlikely race on Monday at Pocono Raceway.
Go figure.
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