How close to the crown? Larson’s paths to clinching a third Cup Series title at Martinsville

Kyle Larson has one hand on the NASCAR Cup Series championship trophy and could officially clinch the crown Sunday at Martinsville Speedway.

Larson leads Denny Hamlin by 73 points, the largest gap seen in the Chase. Christopher Bell is 74 points back, and Chase Briscoe is 79 behind. Only seven drivers remain in mathematical contention for the title with two races to go.

Here are statistical nuggets to know for this weekend, via Racing Insights:

• Larson clinches the title with 59 points, regardless of what any other driver does.
• Any driver who is 77 points behind the championship leader after Martinsville is eliminated.
• Larson’s odds of winning the title are 92.3%. In scenarios where he comes up short, he averages 16.5 points per race over the final two races.
• Larson has a 36.8% chance of clinching at Martinsville.
• If Denny Hamlin wins the final two races, he has a 60% chance of winning the championship.
• To control his destiny entering Homestead, Hamlin needs to leave Martinsville within 22 points of the lead. Hamlin has a 3.2% chance of that happening.

Here are some random news nuggets to keep in mind for this weekend, via Racing Insights:

• Larson can become the first driver since Matt Kenseth in 2003 to clinch the Cup Series championship early. That season was the last under the full-season points format.
• Hendrick Motorsports is in position to win its 16th drivers’ championship.
• Hendrick Motorsports is the only team to win Cup Series championships with five different drivers (Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Larson, Chase Elliott and Terry Labonte).
• Cliff Daniels can become the eighth crew chief to win at least three Cup Series championships.
• The nine drivers eliminated from the championship are Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suarez, Ryan Preece and Chris Buescher.

And two other notes that are non-championship related:

• Chris Buescher will make his 400th start in the Cup Series this weekend, which will be his 250th start with RFK Racing.
• Joey Logano will become the 30th driver to reach 650 Cup Series starts this weekend.

Chase Elliott beat Denny Hamlin to win the spring race at Martinsville Speedway, though Hamlin led the most laps. William Byron is the defending race winner.

Larson finished ninth in the spring and earned 30 points.