The championship forecasts ahead of IMSA's showpiece finale

This week’s Motul Petit Le Mans at Michelin Raceway Road Atlanta is a special event on its own, but as the annual season finale in the IMSA WeatherTech SportsCar Championship, the added stakes involved for the drivers, teams, and manufacturers vying for the annual championships makes it even more of a spectacle.

Journeys that began in January at Daytona will now culminate in October at Road Atlanta, where the drivers’ championships in all four IMSA WeatherTech classes are up for grabs.

Here’s how they could all be won by the time the checkered flag comes down on a Saturday night down South in Georgia.

Michael L. Levitt/IMSA

GTP

When the weekend begins at Road Atlanta, the unique one-on-one GTP drivers’ championship fight will still be alive between Cadillac Whelen’s Jack Aitken (2752 points) and Porsche Penske Motorsport’s Laurin Heinrich (-147). Barely.

Even after Aitken and co-driver Earl Bamber were overtaken for the win late in last month’s TireRack.com Battle on the Bricks at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, there’s still a possibility that in Friday afternoon's qualifying sessions, Aitken’s margin can surpass 150 points, meaning all he’ll need to do on Saturday is start the race, and he’d be assured of his first full-season IMSA championship.

However, if that doesn’t happen, the odds are still overwhelmingly in Aitken’s favor. The No. 31 Cadillac Whelen V-Series.R of Aitken, Earl Bamber, and Frederik Vesti would have to finish either second-to-last (10th) or even last (11th) in GTP for Heinrich to have a chance at the title in his first full season of top-level prototype racing.

And should that window open, Heinrich and his co-drivers in the No. 7 Porsche Penske Motorsport 963 would have to do something genuinely unprecedented for the German driver to win the drivers’ title. If they win Petit Le Mans, Heinrich, Felipe Nasr, and Julien Andlauer would become the first drivers to take overall victories in IMSA’s three biggest races – Daytona, Sebring, and Petit Le Mans – during the same calendar year. No pressure!

Working under the reasonably safe assumption that every car will start Saturday’s ten-hour race, and the less-than-safe assumption that every car will pass post-race tech, Cadillac Whelen (Action Express Racing) has done enough to clinch the GTP teams’ championship, and Cadillac itself has wrapped up the manufacturers’ championship, needing just one of the three V-Series.Rs to start.

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LMP2

In contrast to the seemingly immovable 1-2 order in GTP, LMP2 not only has four teams in with a chance at the championship, but for the top two teams, it’s almost certainly coming down to a winner-take-all frenzy between the top two.

Only four points separate LMP2 championship leaders Inter Europol Competition, led by Jeremy Clarke and Tom Dillmann, from second place CrowdStrike Racing by APR, led by George Kurtz and Alex Quinn. If either the No. 43 Inter Europol or No. 04 CrowdStrike by APR ORECAs wins LMP2 at Petit Le Mans, they win the championship. And if qualifying results don’t cause a big points swing, whichever car finishes ahead should win the title. Should they tie on points, Clarke and Dillmann’s two wins at CTMP and Road America give them the tie-breaker.

The two other teams in contention are the No. 22 United Autosports USA car of Daniel Goldburg (-101) and the No. 99 AO Racing car of PJ Hyett and Dane Cameron (-108). Qualifying results may shift the picture slightly, but both cars will likely need to win or finish second to have any chance at the championship.

There’s a prize up for grabs that’s arguably more valuable than the LMP2 championship itself: It’s the Jim Trueman Award, IMSA’s annual trophy awarded to the best LMP2 Bronze driver for the full season. And whoever wins the LMP2 championship between Clarke, Kurtz, Goldburg, or Hyett will not only win the Trueman Award alongside it, they’ll also receive the priceless “golden ticket” of an automatic invitation to next year’s 24 Hours of Le Mans, in an LMP2 class where invitations are at a premium these days.

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GTD Pro

At the start of the weekend, seven of GTD Pro’s nine full-time competitors will be mathematically eligible to win the season championship – and incredibly, last year’s champions Antonio García and Alexander Sims aren’t on that list.

But Corvette Racing by Pratt Miller Motorsports teammates Tommy Milner and Nicky Catsburg can still lead Chevrolet to a full set of titles in 2026, even though the drivers of the No. 4 Corvette Z06 GT3.R haven’t won a race in IMSA for over five years. Instead, consistency and timely podiums have powered the No. 4 Corvette’s title push.

That long-awaited win at Petit Le Mans would clinch the title for Milner and Catsburg, but another second-place finish in the race could also be enough to emulate what García and Jan Magnussen did in 2018, when they took the GTLM championship for Corvette Racing with eight podiums, without a single trip to the top step of said podiums.

Behind them, the No. 1 Paul Miller Racing BMW of Connor De Phillippi and Neil Verhagen (-47) and the No. 9 Pfaff Motorsports Lamborghini of Andrea Caldarelli and Sandy Mitchell (-53) have a chance to win the race but also to win the championship if the No. 4 Corvette finishes off the podium.

To some degree, these two cars are sentimental picks to win it all. Paul Miller Racing’s future after the checkered flag falls in Petit is uncertain, at least in its current guise. Pfaff already has nothing to lose, this will be the fan-favorite Canadian team’s last IMSA race – and incredibly, Caldarelli and Mitchell’s brace of wins at Road America and VIR also gives the No. 9 Lamborghini Temerario GT3 a potential tie-breaker advantage should they need it.

Then there’s a group of four outsiders, which could become three after the end of qualifying. Ford Racing’s two cars, the No. 65 (Christopher Mies/Frédéric Vervisch, -124) and No. 64 (Dennis Olsen/Ben Barker, -149) need to finish at least third or second, respectively, to have any chance at overtaking the No. 4 Corvette. In all likelihood, the No. 77 AO Racing Porsche (Nick Tandy/Harry King, -154) has to win its first race of the year to be in it.

And as for the No. 14 Vasser Sullivan Racing Lexus (Ben Barnicoat/Jack Hawksworth, -179), they must avoid losing two points to the No. 4 Corvette in qualifying to stay in the fight come Saturday, a fight they’re only still in thanks to an expanded 14-car GTD Pro field.

Despite cars from six manufacturers being in the fight for the drivers’ and teams’ championships, Chevrolet’s only remaining rival for the GTD Pro manufacturers’ championship is Ford (-68). One of those Velocity Yellow Corvettes just has to take third-place points in the manufacturers’ race to clinch the title.

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GTD

Just like LMP2, the IMSA GTD drivers’ and teams’ championships will likely go down to a heads-up battle between the No. 57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG and the No. 96 Turner Motorsport BMW.

Winward’s reigning champions Russell Ward and Philip Ellis lead Turner’s Patrick Gallagher and Robby Foley by just six points, so whichever car finishes first will likely win the championship, preferably not mired down in GTD’s midfield or lower. Winward Racing’s four victories in GTD would give Ellis and Ward the tie-breaker if somehow it’s needed.

Eduardo Barrichello and the No. 27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin (-116) have seen their mid-season advantages vanish, but if Barrichello wins Petit Le Mans alongside Tom Gamble and Zacharie Robichon, he could come back to win the title for Heart of Racing if both the No. 57 Mercedes-AMG and No. 96 BMW finish eighth or lower (pending qualifying results, as usual).

Mercedes-AMG’s advantage in the GTD manufacturers’ championship is much stronger though: The three-pointed star has only Aston Martin (-94) and Ferrari (-110) to fend off, and if either Winward or Lone Star Racing brings home at least fifth-place points, that would be enough for Mercedes-AMG to clinch the title.

There’s also the Bob Akin Award, given to IMSA’s top Bronze driver in GTD. 13 Autosport’s Orey Fidani and Inception Racing’s Brendan Iribe (-30) are the two drivers remaining who can win the Akin Award and the other “golden ticket” to Le Mans in June, racing in the LMGT3 class. Since there are no qualifying points in the Akin Award standings, it’s simpler to break down: If Fidani finishes tops among the Bronze drivers in GTD, he goes back to Le Mans for the third year in a row. If Iribe wins the GTD “Bronze Cup” at Petit, he needs Fidani to finish third or lower to go back to Le Mans for the first time since 2023.

And in the event of a tie for the Trueman/Akin Awards, the tie-breaker is not wins or second-places, but cumulative drive time during the 2026 season. If it comes to that, Fidani has already amassed a huge lead on Iribe thanks to the latter’s early retirement at Sebring.

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Michelin Endurance Cup

The five-race Michelin Endurance Cup has its own quirky scoring system where, antithetical to most enthusiasts’ idea of the principles of endurance racing, every car is guaranteed two points at every in-race interval (four hours, eight hours, and ten hours) for starting the race, even if they retire on the first lap. That’s six points for the entire race, with as many as 15 points available to gain for leading the race at every interval.

Within those parameters, Porsche Penske Motorsport has effectively sealed the GTP teams’ title already, and by virtue of his superior results for JDC-Miller MotorSports at Watkins Glen and Road America, Laurin Heinrich would take the GTP drivers’ title over Felipe Nasr and Julien Andlauer on a tie-breaker. Only the GTP manufacturers’ title is up for grabs, if Cadillac can gain all 15 points available to overhaul Porsche’s eight-point lead.

In LMP2, just one point separates CrowdStrike/APR’s Kurtz, Quinn, and Toby Sowery from AO’s Hyett, Cameron, and Jonny Edgar at the top. Inter Europol (Clarke/Dillmann/Bijoy Garg, -9) would need maximum points to possibly win the Endurance Cup on a tie-breaker.

Paul Miller Racing’s De Phillippi and Verhagen are in firm control of the GTD Pro title race. Nine points for the No. 1 BMW would be enough to clinch the cup. Behind them, Corvette’s Milner and Catsburg (-6), AO Racing’s King and Tandy (-7), and Manthey’s Klaus Bachler (-9) all need to take big points and hope for an early setback for the No. 1 BMW. BMW also leads the manufacturers’ cup with Porsche (-3) and Chevrolet (-4) in the window.

And then there’s GTD, where first and second are covered by just one point, but 12 teams are mathematically eligible – although many of them need maximum points just to stand a chance at taking the cup. Back at the top, AF Corse USA’s Simon Mann and Antonio Fuoco lead Heart of Racing’s Barrichello, Gamble, and Robichon by just one point, while Winward’s Ellis, Ward, and Indy Dontje (-4) need at least 10 points in the race, and Wright Motorsports’ Adam Adelson, Callum Ilott, and Tom Sargent (-6) need at least 12 points.

Conquest Racing, Manthey 1st Phorm, Turner Motorsports, Inception Racing, DXDT Racing, Triarsi Competizione, 13 Autosport, and Vasser Sullivan Racing fall into the ranks of the longshots. At least the GTD manufacturers’ cup is more straightforward: Ferrari and Aston Martin (-2) are the two makes left standing.

We’ll check back after qualifying on Friday evening to see if the many full-season championship battles have changed significantly.