Why Bristol could be make or break for Blaney's NASCAR title hopes

Ryan Blaney would agree that crunch time in NASCAR's Chase is right around the corner.

The 2023 Cup Series champion has Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway in his sights, and it should be another track Team Penske can capitalize on. The organization has thrived on short, flat tracks this season. Blaney won two of his three races at such facilities (Phoenix Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway), and Logano did the same (North Wilkesboro Speedway and Richmond Raceway).

And after giving up some points last weekend at WWTR because of a brake failure, a good night in Tennessee will keep Blaney in reach during what could be the toughest postseason stretch. A three-in-a-row stretch of high-speed intermediate racing, which could make or break the championship fight for the field.

“It’s definitely a fair point,” Blaney said this week. “The Toyotas have been really, really good at the intermediates; that has shown all year. I feel like we have gotten closer, even though we haven’t had a mile-and-a-half in a little bit. The closest one I can look at recently is Indy, and granted, it’s way different, but I thought Joey was really good at Indy. I thought he had a car that could contend for the win there. So, I think we’re closer, and I have all the confidence in the world in the work we’ve been doing here at Team Penske to try to improve those places.”

Blaney started from the pole and led 190 laps at Bristol in the spring. He finished second.

But at the three intermediate tracks that are coming – Kansas Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway – Blaney led a combined five laps with an average finish of 15.6. There was one top-10 finish in those three races: a seventh in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600.

The fall event at Charlotte is also back on the oval this year. It hasn't been on the oval since 2017, when the switch to the road course was made.

“Those are the spots that we have really put a huge emphasis on needing to be better because we have these three in a row in the Chase that are really going to be a huge decider on if we’re going to contend for the championship or not,” continued Blaney.

“Even though historically they’ve (Toyota) been a little better, I’m still very optimistic that we can go and try to be better and try to contend there. But yes, you’re going to have to be in touch because then you only have four left after those, and tracks that have been good for us in the past.

“So, I hope we found a little bit on the mile-and-a-halves, and we’re still in reach, and then we can try to go close it out the best we can.”

The final stretch in the Chase will be at Phoenix, Talladega Superspeedway, Martinsville Speedway, and Homestead-Miami Speedway. Blaney has won at three of those four tracks.

But what does staying in touch with the championship lead mean for Blaney? The top seven drivers going into Saturday night at Bristol are within 51 points of the lead. Blaney is in the middle, fourth position, sitting 33 points behind leader Denny Hamlin.

The math will be simple as Blaney looks at how the next few weeks need to unfold for his team.

“If you can come out of Charlotte within 40 points, that’s 10 points a week,” he said. “That is very achievable. That is three or four spots in each stage and three or four spots at the end of the race. So, I think that’s a decent area to be in, but no matter where you’re at, you’re never going to give up. 

“But I guess that’s a number that popped into my head because four to go, 40 points, just 10 weeks. It doesn’t seem like a lot, but it is a fair amount. I think you’re within striking distance there.”