Why NASCAR's 2026 championship format gives Hamlin his best shot yet in hunt for elusive title

Denny Hamlin begins the NASCAR Cup Series Chase as the No. 1 seed, and still seeking what has been an elusive championship.

So, quite frankly, why could this year be different? Or what is the message this time around?

“I think that being a favorite in years past, you always knew this thing is going to come down to freaking green-white-checkered in the final race, and that’s how they’re going to decide a championship,” Hamlin said. “I think now the bigger body of work typically bodes well for Denny Hamlin fans. It just always has. You give me more of a sample size, we’re going to prove the best over a long period of time.

“I think that’s what our fans need to focus on – it’s a marathon, not a sprint.”

The body of work through the regular season was good enough for Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 team to be the top seed based on four wins, 199 stage points, a series-leading 14 top-five finishes, and 17 top-10 finishes. The latter has Hamlin tied with Ryan Blaney for the series' most.

But it all comes down to the end result. Hamlin went into last year's season finale as the championship favorite, having won six races, and dominated the event until a caution with four laps to go changed everything.

The 2026 format, however, has Hamlin believing that this is “probably” his best chance to win the championship. There are no eliminations, no three-race resets, and no reseeding after those three-race rounds. It is a matter of week-to-week consistency.

“There’s been years where we’ve been really fast versus the field, things like that, but I’ve always known it's about one race and are you good at that one racetrack on a green-white-checkered finish,” said Hamlin. “I think that it’s a little different this time around, so I’m starting a little bit ahead, not as much ahead as I should be. But I’m a little bit ahead, and I’ve got enough races to prove that we’re the best.”

The gap is 25 points between Hamlin and Blaney, who is second in the point standings. It is the third time that Hamlin has entered the postseason as the points leader (2010; 2012).

Hamlin is also one of two drivers (alongside Joey Logano) in the Chase field who have previous experience in this type of format. Although there are a few new variables such as more points for winning and stage points, Hamlin knows what it’s like to have to grind out 10 straight weeks versus a win to advance and a reset mentality.

It will be different this time around in how it plays out and how a race team can approach it. But experience speaks for itself, and Hamlin has plenty of experience trying to win a championship.

“I’m looking forward to seeing where we’re at five races in,” he said of how competitive the Chase format will be this time around. “And to think that five races in, that’s over a month from now, and we’re still just going to be halfway.

"I think everyone’s going to realize pretty quickly this is a lot different format than what we’ve had in the past. We’re going to see a lot of things that we think are huge moments, and they might be in retrospect when you look back, but we won’t know that until the season’s done in Homestead.”