Hamlin didn't forsee a chance to be Chase top seed, but it's now within reach

Denny Hamlin is within reach of being the top seed in the Chase. Such a possibility is one that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver would not entertain for the longest time this season.

“It’s been a great run, and beyond that, too, it’s also been equally a horrible run for the [No.] 45,” said Hamlin at Richmond Raceway, which is the third-to-last race in the regular season. “I said from the beginning that, without help, it was not going to be possible.

“We got the help that we needed with it with those guys.”

Hamlin and his No. 11 team went on a tear early in the summer with three straight wins, plus two other top-five finishes, in five races. But even in victory lane at Pocono Raceway, he wasn’t ready to eat crow about being within striking distance of Tyler Reddick (at that point 19 points ahead) and said he needed a few more weeks before thinking as much.

It came to fruition as Hamlin didn’t slow down. A gap that was once 129 points between Reddick and Hamlin has swung to Hamlin leading Ty Gibbs by 103 points.

Reddick has fallen to fourth in points and is now 120 points behind. It’s been a summer of slumps for Reddick and his crew, with various issues and mixed results. In the last nine races, Reddick, who started the year with five wins in the first nine races, has finished 25th or worse six times.

“It’s a lot different from what I thought it was going to be, certainly,” Hamlin said. “And at that time, I still wasn’t that far ahead of third, fourth, fifth. I thought at one point in the season before the Pocono win, and really those three wins in a row, I was like, if I don’t run great, I can fall back to sixth or seventh. That, obviously, is not an option now, but you never know what can happen in this sport.

“But, yeah, I would have never thought two months ago we’d be in the position that we’re in that [if] we go out here and we have the weekend we hope to have, we’re going to feel pretty good.”

The top seed will start the Chase with a 25-point lead on second place and a 35-point lead over third place. Whoever starts in 16th place will be 100 points behind the leader.

NASCAR bringing back a Chase format also increased what a win means by awarding more points for it. Hamlin’s success has shown how far strong point days and wins can go. On the other hand, Reddick’s bad days have shown how things can flip in the point standings.

Hamlin leads Gibbs, who moved up two spots with his Iowa Speedway wins, and then Ryan Blaney in third place. Christopher Bell had a strong second-place finish last weekend and gained four spots in points.

The format is doing as expected and hoped.

“It rewards good performance, and it rewards good performance over a sustained period of time, as well,” said Hamlin. “We’re seeing it not only with those guys but [Joey Logano]. The wins matter, running well, getting stage points all matter, and you can claw yourself out of the bottom when you’re there. You just got to step up in performance, and all those teams that I talked about have done that in the last six weeks, and the standings are showing for it.

“I bet they wish they didn’t have such a slow start; they would have had a much closer shot. But still, when this thing resets, short of the top four, everybody from fifth to about 16th is going to gain about 300 points on me. So, they’re going to feel pretty good.”

Hamlin qualified 14th for Saturday night’s race. Blaney won the pole, and Gibbs qualified fourth.