Keselowski's strong day in Iowa undone by cautions

Brad Keselowski played to win and needed a few cautions Sunday at Iowa Speedway. Unfortunately for the veteran, he got more yellows than he bargained for.

The 2012 Cup Series champion was the star of the race’s opening stints, sweeping the first two stages after marching forward in each run. He only led 68 laps along the way after losing the lead on pit road, but had one of the strongest cars and consistently marched forward.

Early on, that meant the odds favored Keselowski to win. Sunday’s race was procedural and filled with long runs in Stage 1 and the opening half of Stage 2, but cautions began to fall as the race hit the midway point, with drivers consistently washing up the track and into anyone on their outside on the challenging 0.875-mile oval.

It put Keselowski and the rest of the field in a tricky predicament for strategy. When was the right time to make a final stop?

Unfortunately for Keselowski, his No. 6 team didn’t have the right answer.

The Michigander waited until his fuel window opened under caution with 119 to go to make a final stop. At the time it seemed like an aggressive strategy in a race that could easily go green, but others were more aggressive and cycled out ahead of him.

In the end, the more aggressive call was the correct one. A litany of cautions marred the opening half of Stage 3, consistently slowing the field and providing 51 laps under yellow for drivers to save fuel. William Byron took advantage and stretched his fuel 144 laps to take the victory.

Keselowski survived the caution-fest and consistently marched forward to give himself a chance. In the closing laps he sat third, just behind Chase Briscoe and in position to pounce if Byron ran out of fuel, but Keselowski couldn’t pass Briscoe and Byron made it anyways, leaving the veteran third and still winless on the year when the checkered flag flew.

“We had so many yellows there in Stage 3, that it got the No. 24 and the No. 19 to where they could make it on fuel, pitting way outside the window,” Keselowski said. “We just couldn’t get back by them. Got back by a lot of guys, restarted [deep] after we pitted and got all the way up to third, but that was as far as I could get.”

Even if he’d had more laps, he wasn’t likely to prevail. Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney was right in his tracks with fresher tires for the final 10 laps.

“I feel like I was going to get the No. 19, but Blaney was going to pass me,” Keselowski said. “It was a solid day, but we just needed a few more things to go our way.”

While the run itself is promising, the result is disappointing for Keselowski. He entered Iowa 24th in the standings and well outside of the provisional playoff field, in need of a win to make another postseason run. The 41-year-old will have three races to score a season-changing win before the postseason arrives.

If there’s any perk for Keselowski, the lack of a new winner means the team he drives for and co-owns, RFK Racing, still has a provisional playoff contender on points.

Chris Buescher finds himself 23 points above teammate Ryan Preece on the current playoff cutline. The Texan now sits 40 points below Alex Bowman, meaning he’ll need major gains to advance to the playoffs on points if there’s another new winner before the playoffs arrive.