Palou in rarified air with near-unassailable IndyCar points lead

Winning five of the first six IndyCar Series races has elevated Alex Palou to a rare and lofty place in the annals of the sport.

Leaving the Indianapolis 500 where the Spaniard won with the No. 10 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda team, he arrived for this weekend’s Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix with a stupefying lead of 112 points over his closest challenger, Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward.

With 54 points serving as the maximum haul for any race (50 to win, one for pole, one for leading a lap, and two points for leading the most laps), Palou has amassed two complete perfect races as a margin over O’Ward – 108 points, plus four more – as the season accelerates into a busy stretch where 11 races will be run by August 31.

At 112 points, Palou owns the largest points lead after six races since the modern IndyCar point structure was created, holding nearly double the amount of points the next closest driver – the late Dan Wheldon – held over Tony Kanaan with 65 points after six races in 2005. Wheldon went on the win the championship that year.

In another interesting stat supplied by Scott Richards, Palou’s 306 points after six races is three races ahead of when he reached the threshold of 300 points in 2024, which came at the ninth race in Mid-Ohio. The greatest points advantage in the modern system belongs to Simon Pagenaud, who won the 2016 championship over Team Penske teammate Will Power by 127 points, but that impossible margin was built over 16 races and while double points were given at the Indy 500 and season finale.

To be so close to that 127-point advantage after six races instead of 16, and without double points at two of the events, is another remarkable accomplishment for Palou. Dating back to 1946, after six championship races, he’s also reached fourth place on the all-time points possibility list having secured 306 of 335 available markers (91.3%).

AJ Foyt is first (2100 of 2100 for 100%) from his six opening races in 1964 and in 1979 (3300 of 3500 for 94.3%), with Johnny Rutherford owning third (3140 of 3400 for 92.4%) from 1980.

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Arrow McLaren’s Christian Lundgaard is third in the standings, 125 points back, or two full races plus 17 points, and after Lundgaard, fourth place and back are closer to three maximum points races down to Palou. Using IndyCar’s points structure, Palou would earn five points for last-place finishes, meaning the best his rivals can do – unless he fails to start the race by illness or injury – is gain 49 points on him with a perfect weekend and his absence from the contest.

With that minor recalculation, it means everyone from Kyle Kirkwood in fifth (down 150 points) and lower could win the next three races and score all of the bonus points, while Palou falls out on the first lap at those three races and takes last-place points, and still be at least three points behind the Ganassi driver.

Those ahead of Kirkwood from second to fourth in the standings would catch and pass Palou, but the size of the challenge that lies ahead is clear for everyone chasing the three-time champion. The mission for the likes of O’Ward and Lundgaard and the rest is to build momentum in their pursuit of Palou.

Colton Herta, on pole for the Detroit race, sits ninth in the championship with 185 points to find. If he’s going to have a chance of catching Palou, he’ll need to be consistent from hereon out to start and finish in front of the No. 10 Honda. It’s the same for everyone who isn’t Alex Palou, because if Herta has a great weekend in Detroit, gains some ground on the first-place driver, and then fail to get in front of Palou again until three or four races later, there’s no reasonable scenario where that 185-point deficit will turn into an advantage by the end of Nashville on August 31.

Whomever it is, one or more drivers must get in the habit of beating Palou across June, July, and August if he’s going to be stopped from taking a fourth championship, third title in a row, and like 2023, taken before the season finale.

There’s an equal opportunity across the 27 drivers to win each championship; who will rise – if anyone – to put up a fight that can take down Palou? The ongoing attempt to answer that question resumes on Sunday at 12:30 p.m. ET in the Motor City.