Is F1 playing a brilliant hand with Andretti?

We’ve come a long way since word started to get around that Michael Andretti was trying to buy Sauber and enter Formula 1.

That was over two years ago, and since then in early 2022 the plan shifted to entering as a new team, with the addition of General Motors’ support to create Andretti-Cadillac coming to fruition earlier this year.

Even when that led to the FIA approving the application from Andretti to join the grid -- moving the process on so that commercial discussions could be held with Formula One Management (FOM) -- the overriding impression being given off by those within FOM was that the attempt would be rejected.

It’s a theme that has been constant throughout this process so far, with FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem stating his public support at the start of the year but F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali far tougher to please. In fact, Domenicali has often spoken like there’s no pleasing him at all.

The teams themselves have had their say, too, and regularly been opposed, but have at least offered a little more insight than the FOM stance. On the whole it has been about money and the way any 11th team joining the grid could hurt their ability to make so much -- be it through the revenue split that is distributed as prize money, or sponsorship and commercial opportunities -- and to suggest they’re fearful of competition doesn’t seem to quite stand up.

In fact, what the existing teams have often said is that if Andretti is to come in, then it needs to be the strongest setup possible with the full backing of a major automotive manufacturer as its power unit supplier.

“To have General Motors coming into Formula 1 is a massively positive thing,” Horner told Sky Sports back in early October, “and we’re seeing Ford come back in 2026, so Ford vs GM would be fantastic. But ideally, I think they need to do their own engine.”

You can see where I’m going with this…

The timing was interesting, as General Motors confirmed it has informed the FIA that it will become a power unit manufacturer from 2028 onwards in the few days before the Las Vegas Grand Prix kicked off. The focus was on the U.S., but it was also firmly on Vegas, and was only ever destined to be one of many talking points.

But it feels like that was by design, as a number of GM execs also attended the race weekend but limited any public comments.

And so too did F1 itself. Admittedly, the FIA wasn’t shouting from the rooftops this time, but there was no acknowledgement from F1 of the news in the same way other manufacturers have been welcomed because this one is tied to a team that is yet to be approved as an entrant.

Yet the more my reaction becomes “it’s going to be impossible to turn down now,” the more I start to wonder just how much of the developments over the past two years have been anticipated by FOM.

To say it has been orchestrated would be going too far, and giving too much credit to Domenicali and company when it is the ambition within Andretti and GM that has pushed the project on to a higher level each time. But as FOM keeps raising the bar and Andretti-Cadillac keeps reaching that new target, it becomes much closer to what FOM really wants.

GM being a full power unit manufacturer absolutely increases the value of the sport. To have the fifth-biggest car manufacturer by 2023 revenue joining the ranks will have a knock-on impact in terms of investor confidence, interest and marketing power.

Whether FOM believes those boosts would be bigger if GM partnered with an existing team rather than entered alongside a new one remains to be seen, but the original claims from the sport’s bosses that it was simply going to be a badging exercise on a chassis powered by a Renault power unit have now been proven false over the longer term.

FOM remains quiet on GM’s announcement, and similarly on the idea that it might have been calling Andretti-Cadillac’s bluff at every step so far to force those commitments. But one thing’s for sure: Audi taking over Sauber and then GM partnering with Andretti to try and enter F1 is a much better outcome than the original plan of Andretti simply buying Sauber itself, because that featured no Volkswagen Group and no GM.

Intentionally or not, F1 has played some hand so far. Whether it’s a winning one for all of the interested parties will only be known when a decision on the Andretti entry is made.