INDYCAR: Power facing long odds in title bid

Team Penske is guaranteed to win this year's Verizon IndyCar Series championship. The driver who'll deliver that crown to legendary owner Roger Penske is the only thing left to decide this weekend at Sonoma, and for both pilots, Sunday's 85-lap race will be a tale of two objectives.

Championship leader Simon Pagenaud has a handy 43-point advantage over teammate Will Power, and even with double points available, the gap is wide enough to push Power into a make-or-break approach to the event.

100 points will go to the winner of the GoPro Grand Prix at Sonoma Raceway, and with four additional points available – one for pole, one for leading a lap, and two for leading the most laps – there is a potential for a big swing between the Penske drivers.

The biggest area of difficulty involves the season-long pace of both drivers on permanent road courses. Of the six on the schedule, Pagenaud has won the most, taking Barber, the Indy GP, and Mid-Ohio. And Power has one at Road America (Scott Dixon has the other at Watkins Glen). It means the two title contenders should be fast and in close proximity of each other unless something funny happens.

Related Stories

Power has claimed the two most recent poles at Sonoma, Pagenaud has been the pole master of 2016 with six to his credit so far, and it suggests the duo will be fighting over the bonus point that comes with starting first.

In the race, their objectives are clear: Power needs to finish toward the front and have Pagenaud struggle mightily in order to earn his second championship. Pagenaud simply needs to shadow Power to earn his first.

Without factoring in the bonus points, if Power wins, he'd need Pagenaud to finish sixth or lower. In sixth, Power would win the title 612-611. At anything less than a win for Power, prayers and misfortune start to enter the championship conversation. If he finishes second, he'd need Pagenaud to finish 12th or lower to win 592-591. If Power's third, Pagenaud would need to finish 17th in a 22-car field for the title to come his way 582-581.

To win the championship, Power must finish no lower than fifth, and in fifth, he'd need Pagenaud to come home last. Maximum attack, and nothing else, is what Power is facing in Sonoma once the green flag waves. If he can add in a few bonus points, life becomes a little bit easier but not to the point of being able to finish toward the bottom of the top 10. For Power, it's almost a case of win or bust – but a podium could do the trick if Pagenaud's day goes sideways.

For Pagenaud to earn his first title, he needs to have a clean and quick run tomorrow. If he can finish ahead of Power, the championship question has an immediate answer, but if he ends up behind his old friend, pit strategy will be incredibly important. Rather than run to the end of each fuel window and risk getting caught out by a yellow, he'll want to pit early in those windows to ensure another situation like Toronto does not ruin his chances.

Tangling with lapped cars or pressing the issue with the faster drivers – the same thing that ruined the team's chances last year at Sonoma – is also a recipe for championship disaster. As long as he's within a few positions of Power, IndyCar will have a first-time champion.

It probably won't be all that exciting for Pagenaud, but he needs to keep calm and cool, make high percentage decisions, and orbit Power's world from start to finish in order to accomplish his mission.