WEAVER: The Chase form guide

Like any major sporting event, the NASCAR Chase for the Championship will be largely decided by a series of probable outcomes. After 26 regular season races, teams are what their statistics say they are, and it's a great predictor of success for the final 10.

These odds will be the subject of speculation and scrutiny up until the first race on Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway. Of course, races are not contested on paper and there will be surprises and outliers - the byproduct of the human element in an engineering-based game.

With that said, there's still a hierarchy entering the four-round playoff. Consider this a casual handicapping of the field. As such, these odds are for entertainment purposes and should not be taken to Las Vegas or Atlantic City.

The Favorites:Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex and Keselowski

This group includes the two most recent champions under the current elimination format and a representative from Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet. Defending champion Kyle Busch (ABOVE) has to be treated as the most-likely to win given his four victories and 1,244 laps led - league leaders in both categories.

Harvick won the 2014 championship and finished second to Busch last season. He was a slightly faster final pit stop away from winning back-to-back championships. Their work on pit road has again created questions entering the final 10 races but those were somewhat answered with a flawless night on Saturday at Richmond.

He finished as the regular season points leader with two victories, which proved he can advance with both consistency and wins.

Truex overcame similar issues on pit road during the spring and early summer, and seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Keselowski has scratched out four victories this season and his 12 top-fives is second in the series. These are the four best teams in the garage, but that doesn't make them a sure-fire bet to make the Championship Four.

Good Bets:Hamlin, Edwards, Kenseth, Logano and Kurt Busch

These are really good teams, but fall just short of elite status. The list includes the remaining three Joe Gibbs Racing teams, a Team Penske Ford and a second Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. These five have all the tools necessary to advance to the Championship Race, but may need one of the favorites to run into adversity to do it.

Hamlin (ABOVE) has won three races, including Saturday night at Richmond, the final tune-up before the playoffs begin. Busch is the 2004 champion and has perhaps had the most underappreciated consistent season of recent memory, having completed every lap up until a crash at Bristol ended that streak. That's what playoff runs are made of.

Logano came within one bad pit stop of winning the 2014 championship while Kenseth and Edwards are battled-tested and equipped with the might of JGR and TRD. Any of these teams could easily make it to Homestead, but wouldn't be the obvious favorites should they qualify.

Long Shots:Johnson, Elliott, Dillon, Stewart and Larson

It's remarkable that this section includes nine Sprint Cup championships between Johnson and Stewart, but it's unlikely that either will add to that list come November in South Beach. These teams have had enjoyed good stretches at time, but they've largely hovered outside the top-10. There's something to be said of veteran moxie and youthful exuberance, but these teams lack both consistency and the ability to rack up victories.

Both Dillon and Elliott are still looking for their first career wins, while Larson (ABOVE) just recently earned his at Michigan. That doesn't bode well for an extended playoff run. There is a path that could lead these teams to Homestea, but that would feel like a major success in itself.

Not Happening:McMurray and Buescher

Buescher (ABOVE) earned a bracket-buster status by winning the rain-shortened race at Pocono in July. It was a great achievement of strategy and luck, but that doesn't have any bearing in the Chase for the Championship. The reigning Xfinity Series champion has a 26.7 average finish this season, and it hasn't been much better since his victory and receiving additional support from Roush Fenway Racing.

Buescher remains one of the top prospects in the Sprint Cup Series, but this will not end with him hoisting the trophy at Homestead in November.

McMurray is a savvy veteran but he's only posted a single top-five this season. He's been much better as of late, posting a 10.8 average finish over the last nine races, but it's hard to see that sustaining itself over the next three races when everyone rolls out their best equipment.