IndyCar: Championship contenders on a point-scoring mission

ABOVE: IndyCars on San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge on Thursday. The title contenders #2 through #6 have a similarly big gap in points to bridge if they are to overhaul leader Juan Pablo Montoya.

Focusing on the race for the 2015 Verizon IndyCar Series championship will be a challenge for all of the title contenders in the wake of Justin Wilson's loss. IndyCar's season finale at Sonoma Raceway takes place less than a week after the Andretti Autosport driver's fatal accident at Pocono, and while the timing is unfortunate, the drivers who've been battling for the series' top position since March have one more round to complete before they can decompress.

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Exhaling won't become an option until Sunday's 85-lap GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma is over, and for the six drivers left who have mathematical chances to win the championship, look for a lot of number crunching to take place once the green flag waves.

Points leader Juan Montoya is the only one who does not, technically, need to win the race, but the Colombian – like the five that are chasing him – will have to work for whatever he achieves.

Montoya (500 points), Graham Rahal (-34, 366 points), Scott Dixon (-47, 453 points), Will Power (-61, 439 points), Helio Castroneves (-77, 423 points), and Josef Newgarden (-87, 413 points) head to Sonoma with an endless array of rich points-paying possibilities. Thanks to IndyCar's decision to make the championship closer a double points event, 100 points are up for grabs for whoever wins the race, and each position from second down to the 25th and final spot also pay twice the normal amount.

Add in another four points up for grabs (one for pole, one for leading a lap, and two for leading the most laps) and 104 points are on the table for IndyCar's top-6 and the rest of the 25-car field. Rather than charting every possible championship outcome, here's a look at some of the finishing positions and math involved in what the title contenders will be faced with on Sunday.

LEFT: Power led at the start in 2014, but things soon got complicated... (LAT photo)

To start, we'll ignore the four extra points as we're a day or more away from those being awarded. Those points could, of course, have an influence in the final standings, so the notes below are a general guideline. And we'll limit most scenarios to what it will take for the championship leader to win, and for the rest to beat him.

Working from the base maximum of 100 points to win and a minimum of 10 points for finishing last, Montoya will win the title if he places first (600), second (580) or third (570). If Montoya finishes last (510), Rahal would still need to finish eighth (514) or better to beat Montoya to the title. Simply put, the worst Montoya can do at Sonoma is end up with 510 points, which puts a lot of pressure on P2-P5 in the standings to achieve something extraordinary.

With a win (566), Rahal needs Montoya to place fourth (564) or lower. If Graham's second (546), he needs Montoya to rise no higher than ninth (544). If he's third (536), JPM wins with an easy run to 11th (538) and loses with a 13th (534). Rahal can still win the title by finishing just outside the top-3, but in those scenarios, Montoya would only need to cruise and avoid contact and mechanical malfunctions.

A win by Dixon (553) and seventh (552) or lower for Montoya gives the Kiwi his fourth IndyCar title. Dixon in second (533) takes big pressure off Montoya, who only needs to finish 13th (534) to take the crown. Third for Dixie (523) means his Colombian rival only needs to finish 18th (524) to win. Without a victory at Sonoma, Dixon, who won last year's race, faces a steep proposition to beat JPM.

Montoya's teammate Power, the defending series champion, needs a win (539) and JPM to place 11th (538) or lower hold onto his title. Second for Power (519) allows Montoya to finish 20th (520) and win. If you're rooting for Power, his mission is clear. Anything less than victory makes JPM's life easy.

The third Penske driver in the top-6, Castroneves, must win (523) and wish bad things on Montoya, who can still win with 18th (524) or better if the Brazilian drives into Victory Lane. Like Power, Helio needs to win, and really needs JPM to struggle.

Of the six drivers with a shot at earning the monstrous Astor Cup (LEFT) and the $1M check that comes with it, Newgarden (413 points) essentially needs the top-5 to oversleep and miss the race.

The CFH Racing pilot must win (513), have Montoya finish no better than 24th (512), have Rahal take ninth or worse (510), Dixon finish better than sixth (509), Power cross the line no higher than third (509), and Castroneves finish second (503) or lower.

That's Josef: P1, JPM: P24, Rahal: P9, Dixie: P6, DJ Willy P: P3, and HCN: P2.

Sounds like the kinds of Las Vegas odds only RACER's Robin Miller would take.

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