2014 Championships On the Line - A Primer on Points Projections

While more than a dozen drivers have mathematical possibilities to win 2014 Pirelli World Challenge class championships, the number should drop to single digits of those eligible after Friday’s races at Miller Motorsports Park.

GT/GT-A/GTS runs Round 15 on Friday and Round 16 on Saturday, while Touring Car/Touring Car A/Touring Car B-Spec runs Round 13 on Friday and Round 14 on Saturday.

A maximum of 304 points are available this weekend in each class. A driver would achieve that maximum with a win (140 points) and by securing all 12 bonus points in each race. Drivers not within 152 points heading into Saturday’s races will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention.

Here are the points situations heading into the final race weekend of the season. All scenarios presented do not take into account potential bonus points, of which 12 are on offer per race (7 for pole, 3 most laps led, 1 for one lap led, 1 for fastest race lap), and would be added to the projections. Additionally, scenarios presented do not take into account potential points deductions that could be assessed. 

GT

Johnny O’Connell, of Flowery Branch, Ga., in the No. 3 Cadillac Racing Cadillac CTS-V.R leads Mike Skeen, of Charlotte, N.C., in the No. 2 Hawk Performance Audi R8 Ultra, by 42 points, 1376-1334.

O’Connell will retain the points lead heading into Round 16 provided he finishes ahead of Skeen in Round 15. If he doesn’t, Skeen can move into the points lead with a top-five finish and several possible scenarios playing out.

Skeen can take the points lead on O’Connell in Friday’s Round 15 if he wins and O’Connell finishes third or worse (1474-1471), with second and O’Connell ninth or worse (1444-1440), with third and O’Connell 13th or worse (1429-1427), with fourth and O’Connell 17th or worse (1419-1417), or with fifth and O’Connell 19th or worse (1414-1413).

Third-placed Anthony Lazzaro, of Atlanta, Ga., in the No. 61 R. Ferri Motorsports Ferrari 458 Italia GT3, is mathematically alive at 160 back of O’Connell (1376-1216). Lazzaro cannot move into the points lead in Round 15. The closest he can get to O’Connell is eight points. He would need to score a maximum 152 points to advance to 1368 points, and have O’Connell fail to score points.

Andy Pilgrim, of Boca Raton, Fla., in the No. 8 Cadillac Racing Cadillac CTS-V.R and Andrew Palmer, of Chicago, in the No. 21 GMG Racing Audi R8 Ultra are still mathematically eligible heading into Round 15 but will be eliminated provided they are outside that 152-point gap heading into Round 16.

Audi and Cadillac will also square off for the Manufacturer’s Championship. Cadillac looks for its third in a row, but will have to come from behind to do so.

Audi has 85 points to Cadillac’s 78 through Round 14. For Cadillac to overcome the gap, Cadillac would need to win (9 points) and have the best Audi finish no better than sixth (1 point) in Round 15, and then finish ahead of Audi in Round 16 to retain the title. Audi can clinch the Manufacturer’s Championship if it leaves Round 15 with an 11-point advantage over Cadillac. 

GTS

Mark Wilkins, of Toronto, in the No. 38 PutOnTheBrakes.org Kia Optima, holds an 80-point lead over defending class champion Lawson Aschenbach, of Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., in the No. 1 Blackdog Speed Shop Chevrolet Camaro (1333-1253).

Wilkins will retain the lead heading into Saturday’s Round 16 unless Aschenbach can outscore him by 81 points in Friday’s Round 15. This can be accomplished if Aschenbach wins and Wilkins ends 11th or worse (1393-1390). Additionally, if Wilkins fails to complete 70 percent and score points, Aschenbach can take the points lead with fourth place or better.

Jack Baldwin, of Marietta, Ga., in the No. 73 RESET-MD Porsche Cayman S is also mathematically eligible but like Lazzaro in GT, he’ll need to get within 152 to have a shot going into Round 16. Currently, he’s just under 200 points behind Wilkins.

Kia has 87 points to Ford’s 79 in the Manufacturer’s Championship. Ford could take the lead on Friday with a win (9 points) and Kia failing to score any points. If Kia does score, Ford would need to outscore by a greater margin in Round 16 to overcome the deficit.

GT-A

Michael Mills, of Angleton, Texas, in the No. 41 EFFORT Racing Porsche GT3 R has solidified his lead for the inaugural GT-A championship, with a gap of 48 points to Henrik Hedman, of Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., in the No. 10 DragonSpeed Ferrari 458 Italia GT3.

Mills has not finished outside the top 12 in combined GT/GT-A the last six races, while Hedman has not finished better than 12th combined since Round 3 at Barber, when he finished a season-best ninth.

Hedman can take the points lead with a finish of 13th or better in Round 15 if Mills fails to complete 70 percent of race distance and score points. However, if Mills scores, Hedman will still have a considerable gap to overcome for Round 16.

Third-placed Dan Knox, of Pilot Point, Texas, in the No. 80 ACS Manufacturing, Inc./Performance SpeedTech Dodge Viper SRT GT3-R, is seven points behind Hedman. He can overtake the Swede in Round 15, but has a similar challenge in trying to catch Mills.

TC

Michael DiMeo, of Toronto, holds a 489-point lead over teammate and Compass360 Racing team principal Karl Thomson, of Toronto. DiMeo has mathematically clinched the Touring Car class championship.

TCA

Jason Wolfe, of Mt. Vernon, Ohio, in the No. 36 Wolfe Trucking Kia Forte Koup leads Shea Holbrook, of Groveland, Fla., in the No. 67 TRUECar/Lucas Oil/Radium Honda Civic Si by 36 points (1346-1310) heading into Friday’s Round 13.

Holbrook can take the lead in Round 13 with a win and Wolfe finishing third (1450-1441). She can also take the lead if she finishes and Wolfe doesn’t, and thus doesn’t complete the 70 percent required to take points. If she wins Round 13 and Wolfe comes second, the points gap between the two will be single digits.

In third, Ernie Francis Jr., of Dania, Fla., in the No. 98 Breathless Performance Mazda MX-5 has a shot after winning both Brainerd races. At 75 points back, Francis Jr. can’t take the points lead at Round 13, but he could come close.

HPD leads Kia in the Manufacturer’s Championship by 15 points. If the gap is 11-plus after Friday, HPD will clinch.

TCB

Brian Price, of Middletown, Va., in the No. 51 Unlimited Racing/RP Performance Honda Fit, holds a 77-point lead on Nathan Stacy, of Owasso, Okla., in the No. 14 MDG/Ford Racing Ford Fiesta (1144-1067).

Stacy can take the lead on Price in Round 14 with Price finishing 10th or worse (1207-1204). Otherwise Stacy, third-placed Tyler Palmer, of San Diego, Calif., in the No. 37 MINI USA/Mobil 1/Flying L Racing/ThePainter’sFriend.com/Discount Tire Mini Cooper and fourth-placed Paul Holton, of Tallahassee, Fla., in the No. 65 Radium/TRUECar/Lucas Oil Honda Fit will all need Price to fail to make 70 percent and thus not score points to have a realistic shot going into Round 14.

HPD leads Mini in the Manufacturer’s Championship by 18 points. If the gap is 11-plus after Friday, HPD will clinch.